Who is pitching, what his numbers should be, and where the odds disagree. The full edition has every sport from that day.
Tyler Glasnow's expected ERA (what it should be, judged by how hard hitters actually hit him) is 2.88; Shane Drohan's is 3.81, and Milwaukee are using Drohan only to open a bullpen game. The pick is the Dodgers.
The money has gone the other way: Los Angeles opened at −185 and are now −155, about four points of win chance towards Milwaukee.
Against it Drohan will probably not face the lineup twice, so the starter comparison matters less than usual, and Milwaukee's bullpen has been the best thing in this series. Glasnow walked five in his last start and has had back trouble this year. Last night's pick was the Dodgers too, behind a better starter, and Snell gave up three home runs.
| Starter | IP | ERA | xERA | ERA − xERA | K% | BB% | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Exit velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane DrohanMIL · LHP | 124.2 | 4.19 | 3.81 | +0.38 | 23.7 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 38.7 | 88.7 |
| Tyler GlasnowLAD · RHP | 74.0 | 3.53 | 2.88 | +0.65 | 34.0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 38.4 | 90.1 |
| Drohan | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Pitches | Fastball | Whiff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | at PHI | 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 94.7 | 5 |
| Sep 12 | vs CIN | 3.2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 60 | 95.4 | 28 |
| Sep 4 | at CIN | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 78 | 94.5 | 30 |
| Aug 29 | vs TEX | 5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 99 | 94.5 | 30 |
| Aug 23 | vs ATL | 5.0 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 83 | 95.1 | 24 |
| Glasnow | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Pitches | Fastball | Whiff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | at ATL | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 96.8 | 23 |
| Sep 24 | vs SD | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 91 | 95.9 | 43 |
| Sep 18 | vs SF | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 98 | 95.7 | 40 |
| Sep 12 | at MIA | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 91 | 95.5 | 37 |
| Sep 5 | vs WSH | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 96 | 95.6 | 33 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Price | Why | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct | MIL at LAD | LAD | 1.65 | Glasnow 2.88 xERA v Drohan 3.81 (opening a bullpen game) | L | -1.00 |
| Wed 14 Oct | MIL at LAD | LAD | 1.56 | Snell 2.17 xERA v Gasser 4.27 | L | -1.00 |
| Tue 13 Oct | CLE at TB | CLE | 2.13 | Messick 3.15 xERA v Peralta 3.84 | L | -1.00 |
| Mon 12 Oct | CLE at TB | TB | 1.60 | Rasmussen 3.06 xERA v Griffin 4.35 | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | LAD at MIL | MIL | 1.89 | Misiorowski 2.13 xERA v Skubal 2.94 | W | +0.89 |
Tennis: a pick when our win chance and the odds' are three points apart. Baseball: when one starter's expected ERA is half a run better. Hockey and football (from 15 October): when one side wins at least two more of the category rows on the card than the other; before that, hockey was Elo against the odds and football ELWAY against the spread. One unit at the price on the card. Everything else is a pass and is not graded. Grading started with the 11 October cards. Price is in decimal odds: 1.80 returns 0.80 units on a win.