Power ratings against the spread, with the week's injury news. The full edition has every sport from that day.
Seattle have the better quarterback, the best defence in the league against a middling Denver offence, and they face a secondary without Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga. Three categories to Denver's one, so the pick is Seattle −2.5.
The rating itself has no quarrel with the line: it makes Seattle two-point favourites, half a point from the market.
Against it That is the catch with this card: the categories say who is better, and the spread already says Seattle. The ratings were set before Week 5, when Seattle lost at home to San Francisco. The total has fallen a point and a half to 40.5, and in a low-scoring game a field goal decides whether 2.5 is covered.
| SEA | DEN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA −2.5 · opened −2 · money line about −145 | DEN +2.5 · total 40.5, down from 42 | — |
| Rating v the spread | ELWAY rates Seattle about four points better than Denver on a neutral field | Home field is worth 1.75 · ELWAY makes it Seattle by 2.05 | even |
| Quarterback | Darnold, healthy, three straight starts since his hip injury · the higher-rated of the two | Nix, healthy, started all five | SEA |
| Offence v defence | Offence 9th against Denver's defence 9th · 26.8 points a game | Offence 11th against Seattle's defence, 1st · 19.4 points a game | SEA |
| Last three games | 1–2, +2 · lost 32–29 at home to San Francisco on Sunday | 2–1, even · won 23–17 at the Chargers on Sunday | even |
| Injuries | Out: running back Charbonnet, linebackers Drake Thomas and Surratt · Smith-Njigba and Leonard Williams expected to play | Out: cornerback Pat Surtain II, safety Talanoa Hufanga · cornerback Riley Moss questionable | SEA |
| Rest and travel | Short week, a time zone east, and up to altitude | Short week at home, after flying back from Los Angeles on Sunday night | DEN |
Edges: SEA 3 · DEN 1 · even 2
| Date | Game | Pick | Price | Why | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct | SEA at DEN | SEA −2.5 | 1.91 | categories SEA 3, DEN 1, even 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | CHI at GB | GB +1.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY GB −2.35, market CHI −1.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | BUF at LAR | BUF +3.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY LAR −0.35, market LAR −3.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | PHI v JAX | PHI +7.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY JAX −4.4, market JAX −7.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | CLE at NYJ | CLE +2.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY CLE −0.55, market NYJ −2.5 | L | -1.00 |
Tennis: a pick when our win chance and the odds' are three points apart. Baseball: when one starter's expected ERA is half a run better. Hockey and football (from 15 October): when one side wins at least two more of the category rows on the card than the other; before that, hockey was Elo against the odds and football ELWAY against the spread. One unit at the price on the card. Everything else is a pass and is not graded. Grading started with the 11 October cards. Price is in decimal odds: 1.80 returns 0.80 units on a win.