A winner-takes-all baseball game, three hockey games where our numbers and the bookmakers disagree, and five matches in Tokyo and Beijing. How to read this: we work out what each team or player's chance of winning should be, then compare it with what the betting odds say. Where the two disagree most, we write it up first.
The series is tied at one game each and neither team has announced a pitcher. That usually means a bullpen game: a series of relievers, nobody going more than two or three innings.
So the useful question is not who starts. It is who threw a lot of pitches in the first two games and therefore cannot throw many today.
Against it Both teams can still surprise everyone and name a starter on short rest an hour before the game, which would make all of this beside the point. Bullpen games are also the hardest kind to predict, as Houston found out: they lost both games of their series to a White Sox team that opened with relievers.
| Philadelphia, used up | Cristopher Sánchez threw 116 pitches yesterday — more than anyone in the series, and he is unavailable. Andrew Painter went three innings on 37 pitches yesterday, so he is likely limited. |
| Philadelphia, fresh | Jhoan Duran threw 27 pitches on Tuesday and did not pitch yesterday. Alex McFarlane has thrown 20 pitches across the two games. |
| Atlanta, used up | Tyler Mahle threw 95 pitches yesterday and Chris Sale threw 95 on Tuesday. Neither pitches today. |
| Atlanta, fresh | Raisel Iglesias has pitched in both games but thrown only 16 pitches in total, so he is available. Dylan Lee (31 across two days) and Didier Fuentes (33) have both worked back-to-back. |
| The odds | Philadelphia 51.4%, Atlanta 48.6% — as close to a coin flip as the market gets, and it will move once the pitchers are announced. |
Florida are the better team on paper: 1545 against San Jose's 1492. But home ice is worth something, and once you add it the two are nearly even — our numbers make San Jose a 49.6% chance at home.
The bookmakers have San Jose at 44.0%. That six-point difference is the biggest on tonight's hockey card.
Against it Neither goalie is confirmed, and in hockey the goalie matters more than almost anything else. Florida also have more talent, which tends to show up over a full game even when the ratings are close.
| Ratings | Florida 1545 · San Jose 1492 · home ice added → San Jose 49.6% |
| Odds say | San Jose 44.0% · 5.6 points apart |
| Goalies | Schmid (Florida) v Askarov (San Jose) · neither confirmed |
Seattle rate 1449 and Calgary 1445 — four points apart, which is nothing. Home ice then makes Calgary a 56.6% chance.
The odds say 51.1%. Calgary are also the one team tonight with a confirmed goalie: Dustin Wolf is starting.
Against it Two of the weakest teams in the league playing each other is exactly where a rating is least reliable, because neither has much of a record to judge. Seattle's Joey Daccord is the better goalie if he plays.
| Ratings | Calgary 1445 · Seattle 1449 · home ice added → Calgary 56.6% |
| Odds say | Calgary 51.1% · 5.5 points apart |
| Goalies | Daccord (Seattle) unconfirmed · Dustin Wolf confirmed for Calgary |
Minnesota are clearly better — 1540 against 1476 — and the odds make them a 57% favourite on the road. With home ice, our numbers say Nashville are closer to a 48% chance than a 43% one.
Juuse Saros in goal is a large part of why Nashville stay in games they should lose, and a team rating does not account for him.
Against it Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt is the other side of that coin, and neither goalie is confirmed. Five points is also the smallest of tonight's three hockey gaps.
| Ratings | Minnesota 1540 · Nashville 1476 · home ice added → Nashville 48.0% |
| Odds say | Nashville 43.0% · 5.0 points apart |
| Goalies | Wallstedt (Minnesota) v Saros (Nashville) · neither confirmed |
In seven of the eight games tonight, our numbers like the home team more than the bookmakers do. That is a suspicious pattern. It probably means the home-ice bonus we add is too generous, not that the bookmakers have made the same mistake eight times.
Treat the three cards above as worth a look rather than worth a bet, and we will test the home-ice setting against results over the next couple of weeks.
Rafael Jodar is 11th in the world on hard courts by rating, at 1920. Vallejo is 159th, at 1570. That is a very large gap, and it makes Jodar an 88% chance.
The odds make him 78%. Ten points is the widest disagreement of the day in any sport.
Against it Vallejo is ranked 56th in the official rankings against Jodar's 13th, so the official list sees them as much closer than our rating does. When the two measures disagree that much, the player with the thinner hard-court record — Vallejo — is usually the one being mismeasured, in either direction.
| Hard-court rating | Jodar 1920 (11th) · Vallejo 1570 (159th) → Jodar 88.3% |
| Odds say | Jodar 78.2% · 10.0 points apart |
| World ranking | Jodar 13 · Vallejo 56 · they have never played |
Mensik rates 1860 and Bublik 1830 on hard courts. Thirty points is almost nothing — it makes the match a 54-46 edge to Mensik.
The odds say 61-39. That is seven points more confidence in Mensik than the ratings support.
Against it Mensik leads their head-to-head 2-1 and is eight years younger. Bublik is also the least predictable player in the top 30: capable of beating anyone and of losing to anyone, which is a real reason for a bookmaker to shade against him.
| Hard-court rating | Mensik 1860 (20th) · Bublik 1830 (24th) → Mensik 54.2% |
| Odds say | Mensik 61.3% · 7.1 points apart |
| World ranking | Mensik 14 · Bublik 20 · Mensik leads 2-1 |
Davidovich Fokina rates 1871 on hard courts, Berrettini 1780. That gap makes him a 63% chance; the odds say 57%.
The ranking agrees with the rating: 26th against 47th.
Against it Berrettini's rating is held down by long injury absences rather than by losing. When he is fit he serves well enough to beat anyone in one match, and a rating built on the last twelve months cannot tell the difference between injured and bad.
| Hard-court rating | Davidovich Fokina 1871 (18th) · Berrettini 1780 (37th) → Davidovich Fokina 62.8% |
| Odds say | Davidovich Fokina 57.0% · 5.8 points apart |
| World ranking | Davidovich Fokina 26 · Berrettini 47 · one win each |
Tien rates 1906 to Hurkacz's 1801, which makes him a 65% chance. The odds say 61%.
Four points is a small difference and not much to act on.
Against it Hurkacz has been as high as sixth in the world and his rating is sliding rather than settled, which makes it less reliable than the number suggests. They have never played each other.
| Hard-court rating | Tien 1906 (13th) · Hurkacz 1801 (31st) → Tien 64.7% |
| Odds say | Tien 60.8% · 3.8 points apart |
| World ranking | Tien 15 · Hurkacz 39 · never played |
Rublev rates 1836, Griekspoor 1768, which makes Rublev a 60% chance. The odds say the same thing.
Nothing to add. Rublev also leads the head-to-head 3-1.
Against it None worth printing. This is what agreement looks like, and most matches look like this.
| Hard-court rating | Rublev 1836 (23rd) · Griekspoor 1768 (44th) → Rublev 59.6% |
| Odds say | Rublev 60.3% · 0.6 points apart |
| World ranking | Rublev 24 · Griekspoor 55 · Rublev leads 3-1 |