The Daily Lob

The odds give Hubert Hurkacz an 84% chance. The hard-court ratings give him 91%.

Zhou Yi is at home and has won two matches here, the second a final-set tiebreak against Lorenzo Musetti, the 24th seed.

Against it  The ratings were last updated on 28 September, so they have not seen either of Zhou's wins this week. A home player on a run is exactly the case where a slow-moving rating is likely to be too low on him.

The odds have this dead level at 50% each. The ratings give Frances Tiafoe 56%.

Tiafoe also leads their head-to-head 3–1, with two of those wins on hard courts, at Miami and Cincinnati.

Against it  The money has gone the other way. Davidovich Fokina opened at about 45% and has been backed up to level, a five-point move against the ratings, and a move that size is worth respecting.

The odds give Brandon Nakashima 53%. The ratings give him 58%.

They have never played each other, so there is no head-to-head to argue with the ratings, which have Nakashima as the stronger hard-court player.

Against it  Nakashima opened at 58% at Pinnacle and has drifted to 52% there. That six-point move towards Bublik is bigger than the whole disagreement.

The odds give Alexander Zverev 84%. The ratings give him 88%.

He has beaten Quentin Halys three times this year, at Miami, the French Open and the US Open, though the last of those went to five sets.

Against it  At odds of 1.13 a winning bet returns 13 cents on the dollar, so a four-point edge is worth very little in money and one bad day wipes out many good ones.

The odds give Jakub Mensik 59%. The ratings give him 55%, a smaller edge.

Francisco Cerundolo has won all three of their meetings, the latest eight days ago in Beijing, 6–3 6–3.

Against it  At three and a half points this is the smallest gap of the five, and between two players this close a head-to-head record carries less weight than it looks.

The odds make Chicago a point-and-a-half favourite in Green Bay, with Tyson Bagent starting for the injured Caleb Williams. The ratings already count Bagent as the quarterback and still make Green Bay the winner by a little over two points.

At 3.85 points this is the widest disagreement on the board, and it is simply the market liking Chicago more than the ratings do, even without their first-choice quarterback.

Against it  Chicago are favourites in Green Bay for only about the third time in thirty seasons, which suggests the market has a strong view and not a careless one. SI reported one book moving the Bears to 3-point favourites during the week, though the board had settled back at 1.5 by Saturday.

The ratings put these two teams almost level, so once the Rams get home field they come out a third of a point better. The odds make the Rams three-and-a-half-point favourites.

The line has moved a point towards Los Angeles since it opened, the opposite way to the ratings, and that is the part to take seriously.

Against it  Buffalo went into the week with five players questionable, three of them on defence (Sanders, Oliver, Benford), which a rating built around the quarterback will not fully count. And because so many games finish three points apart, whether this closes at 3 or 3.5 matters more than the half point suggests.

The odds make Jacksonville seven-and-a-half-point favourites in London. The ratings make it four and a half, with no home field for either side at a neutral ground.

This line opened with Philadelphia favoured by a point and a half and has moved nine points, three of them since midweek. Jalen Hurts is playing, so this is not a quarterback story.

Against it  This is the card most likely to be the ratings' mistake. Philadelphia have lost two long-time offensive-line starters (Lane Johnson retired, Cam Jurgens traded), and Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith both missed Wednesday's practice with hamstring injuries. A rating that adjusts mainly for the quarterback will be slow to count all of that. Treat Jacksonville as the home team and the gap shrinks to 1.35.

The ratings put the Jets last of 32 and Cleveland only a little better, which is still enough to make the Browns half-point favourites on the road. The odds make the Jets two-and-a-half-point favourites.

The line has moved a point and a half towards New York since it opened, away from the ratings.

Against it  Cleveland's injury list is heavy on the defensive line: Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, as did guard Teven Jenkins. The Jets are without Breece Hall again. With both offences near the bottom of the league, one turnover can decide this more than any rating can.

On every measure of how hard he is to hit, Jacob Misiorowski was the best starter in baseball this year: first in strikeouts, swings and misses, and expected ERA (what his ERA should be, judged by how hard hitters actually hit him), at 2.13 against Tarik Skubal's 2.94.

The catch is length. Misiorowski is a rookie past his career high in innings, his last three starts ran 44, 68 and 88 pitches, and he has not got an out in the seventh in any of his last five, so expect Milwaukee's bullpen by the sixth. Skubal has averaged six and a third innings over the same stretch.

Against it  In his one playoff start Misiorowski threw his hardest fastballs of the month and got his fewest swings and misses, 21% against 32-40% before it. The Brewers have also hit Skubal: 14 hits and 5 earned runs in 12 innings over two starts this season. The market makes this a coin flip, and nothing here argues strongly with it.