Team ratings against the money line, with the goalie front and centre. The full edition has every sport from that day.
Philadelphia have had far the worst of the chances of any team on tonight's slate, lost all four games last week by a combined nine goals, and are without Konecny and two top-four defencemen. Detroit have been unlucky: level on chances this season and five goals down. The pick is Detroit.
The odds give Detroit 56% and the ratings 56%, so nobody is arguing about the favourite, only about how much.
Against it Detroit have not won in regulation for a week either, and their goalie, Tarasov, has only two games this season. Philadelphia's goalie, Woll, is not confirmed.
| PHI | DET | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 44% · opened 45% | 56% · opened 55% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 6.1, allowed 9.6 · scored 4, let in 11 | Created 9.7, allowed 11.7 · scored 7, let in 11 | DET |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances −13.5 over eight games, the worst on the slate · goals −20 | Chances about level · goals −5: due | DET |
| Goalie tonight | Woll (unconfirmed): .914, about three better than average this season; below average last season | Tarasov (confirmed): .974 in two games; about average last season | DET |
| Ratings (Elo) | 44% | 56% at home | DET |
| Injuries | Konecny, York, Ristolainen, Grebenkin out | Compher, Kasper, Appleton out | DET |
| Last week | 0–3–1, goal difference −9 | 0–1–2, goal difference −5 | DET |
Edges: PHI 0 · DET 6 · even 0
Vancouver lost all four games last week by a combined 20–7 and have had the second-worst share of the chances on the slate. Florida are short of Barkov, Marchand, Gudas and Markstrom, and still win every category except injuries. The pick is Florida.
At 72% this is a short price: a win returns a third of the stake.
Against it Florida's injury list is long and includes their best two forwards. Merilainen has been decent this season for Vancouver after a very poor one last year.
| VAN | FLA | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 28% | 72% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 7.1, allowed 10.9 · scored 5, let in 13 | Created 11.2, allowed 11.8 · scored 11, let in 12 | FLA |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances −9.8 in eight games · goals −12 | Chances +1.1 · goals −1, slightly due | FLA |
| Goalie tonight | Merilainen (confirmed): about two better than average this season, about 17 worse last season | Schmid (confirmed, Markstrom hurt): about average over both seasons | FLA |
| Ratings (Elo) | 26% | 74% at home | FLA |
| Injuries | Demko out; Chytil back | Barkov, Marchand, Gudas, Markstrom out | VAN |
| Last week | 0–4, goal difference −13 | 1–2, goal difference −1 | FLA |
Edges: VAN 1 · FLA 5 · even 0
Vegas have had a goal a game more of the chances than their opponents this season and went 3–1 last week. The pick is Vegas, at 73%.
Calgary's season is a warning, though: their chances are almost level and their goal difference is −17, the biggest gap between the two on the board.
Against it That kind of gap does not last, and Calgary have had more of the chances than Vegas over the last three games. Both goalies have been below average.
| CGY | VGK | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 27% · opened 29% | 73% · opened 71% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 10.6, allowed 9.3 · scored 9, let in 13 | Created 7.6, allowed 8.8 · scored 9, let in 7 | CGY |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances −1.9 · goals −17: very due | Chances +8.0, a goal a game · goals +9 | VGK |
| Goalie tonight | Wolf (confirmed): about six worse than average this season | Hart (confirmed): about average this season, below last | even |
| Ratings (Elo) | 25% | 75% at home | VGK |
| Injuries | Huberdeau, Honzek out | Wotherspoon, Olofsson out | VGK |
| Last week | 1–2, goal difference −4 | 3–1, goal difference +3 | VGK |
Edges: CGY 1 · VGK 4 · even 1
The Islanders are four goals up on the season while being outplayed on chances, the clearest case on the slate of a team ahead of itself. Ottawa win the season row, the rating and last week. The pick is Ottawa.
Linus Ullmark has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, about seven goals better than average in five games.
Against it Ullmark was well below average last season, so we score the goalie row even. Ottawa are missing Sanderson and Eklund; the Islanders are without Barzal.
| NYI | OTT | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 40% | 60% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 8.7, allowed 8.6 | Created 8.5, allowed 8.4 | even |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances −3.3 · goals +4: ahead of their play | Chances about level · goals +1 | OTT |
| Goalie tonight | Varlamov (confirmed): one game this season, little since | Ullmark (confirmed): .948, about seven better than average this season; about 13 worse last season | even |
| Ratings (Elo) | 38% | 62% at home | OTT |
| Injuries | Barzal, Romanov out | Sanderson, Eklund, MacDermid, Matinpalo out | even |
| Last week | 2–1, goal difference +2 | 3–1, goal difference 0 | OTT |
Edges: NYI 0 · OTT 3 · even 3
St Louis have had the better of the chances over the last three games, went unbeaten in regulation last week, and Minnesota are missing Faber, Spurgeon and both Folignos. Three categories to one, so the pick is St Louis at +120.
The money agrees: Minnesota have drifted from −160 to −142.
Against it The rating disagrees strongly, giving Minnesota 65%, and Jesper Wallstedt has been the best goalie in this edition: about seven better than average in six games. St Louis's Hofer is not confirmed, and Buchnevich is away for the birth of his child.
| STL | MIN | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 44% · opened 41% | 56% · opened 59% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 10.9, allowed 6.5 · scored 14, let in 8 | Created 11.9, allowed 8.8 · scored 10, let in 8 | STL |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances +3.0 · goals +3 | Chances +2.8 · goals +5 | even |
| Goalie tonight | Hofer (unconfirmed): about two better than average this season, about 12 better last | Wallstedt (confirmed): about seven better this season, six better last | even |
| Ratings (Elo) | 35% | 65% at home | MIN |
| Injuries | Buchnevich (personal), Tucker, Mailloux, Toropchenko out | Faber, Spurgeon, both Folignos, Sturm, Gustavsson out | STL |
| Last week | 2–0–1, goal difference +6 | 2–2, goal difference +1 | STL |
Edges: STL 3 · MIN 1 · even 2
Utah have had the most of the chances of any team on the slate this season and have been unlucky over the last three games; Edmonton are seven goals ahead of their chances and missing Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and goalie Andersen. The pick is Utah.
Their stand-in, Devon Levi, has 13 NHL games and has been well below average in them.
Against it The line has swung from Edmonton −140 to Utah −115 and we could not find out why. A move that size without a public reason is worth respecting, and it has taken most of the value.
| UTA | EDM | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 51% · opened 44% | 49% · opened 56% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 11.4, allowed 8.1 · scored 10, let in 11 | Created 7.8, allowed 7.7 · scored 12, let in 4 | UTA |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances +7.0, a goal a game · goals +8 | Chances +4.4 · goals +11: ahead of their play | UTA |
| Goalie tonight | Vejmelka (confirmed): about average this season, seven better last | Levi (confirmed, Andersen hurt): about eight worse than average in nine games two seasons ago | UTA |
| Ratings (Elo) | 39% | 61% at home | EDM |
| Injuries | Carcone out | Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Andersen, Walman and three more out | UTA |
| Last week | 2–1, goal difference −1 | 2–0, goal difference +5 | EDM |
Edges: UTA 4 · EDM 2 · even 0
Nashville have had more of the chances over three games and the season, rate higher, and lost less last week. The pick is Nashville.
Juuse Saros was nine goals worse than average last season, though, and Alex Nedeljkovic has been about average.
Against it The money has moved two points to San Jose since the open, and this is the narrowest of the seven: four categories to two.
| SJS | NSH | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 46% · opened 44% | 54% · opened 56% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 7.7, allowed 10.4 | Created 8.2, allowed 8.6 | NSH |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Chances −7.9 · goals −7 | Chances −2.8 · goals −2 | NSH |
| Goalie tonight | Nedeljkovic (confirmed): about average over both seasons | Saros (likely): about average this season, nine worse last | SJS |
| Ratings (Elo) | 45% | 55% at home | NSH |
| Injuries | none listed | Bourque, Trudeau and back-up goalie Annunen out | SJS |
| Last week | 1–2, goal difference −4 | 1–1–1, goal difference −1 | NSH |
Edges: SJS 2 · NSH 4 · even 0
| Date | Game | Pick | Price | Why | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct | PHI at DET | DET | 1.70 | categories DET 6, PHI 0 | W | +0.70 |
| Thu 15 Oct | VAN at FLA | FLA | 1.34 | categories FLA 5, VAN 1 | W | +0.34 |
| Thu 15 Oct | CGY at VGK | VGK | 1.31 | categories VGK 4, CGY 1, even 1 | W | +0.31 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NYI at OTT | OTT | 1.62 | categories OTT 3, NYI 0, even 3 | W | +0.62 |
| Thu 15 Oct | STL at MIN | STL | 2.20 | categories STL 3, MIN 1, even 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | UTA at EDM | UTA | 1.87 | categories UTA 4, EDM 2 | W | +0.87 |
| Thu 15 Oct | SJS at NSH | NSH | 1.77 | categories NSH 4, SJS 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Wed 14 Oct | MTL at WSH | WSH | 1.83 | ratings 59%, odds 53% | W | +0.83 |
| Wed 14 Oct | DAL at COL | COL | 1.62 | ratings 63%, odds 59% | L | -1.00 |
| Mon 12 Oct | VGK at MIN | MIN | 1.91 | ratings 55%, odds 50% | W | +0.91 |
Tennis: a pick when our win chance and the odds' are three points apart. Baseball: when one starter's expected ERA is half a run better. Hockey and football (from 15 October): when one side wins at least two more of the category rows on the card than the other; before that, hockey was Elo against the odds and football ELWAY against the spread. One unit at the price on the card. Everything else is a pass and is not graded. Grading started with the 11 October cards. Price is in decimal odds: 1.80 returns 0.80 units on a win.