The Daily Lob

Schlittler's 1.95 ERA is the headline of this matchup and his 2.85 expected ERA is the argument against it — he has been carried by 0.90 runs across 193.2 innings, the second-highest workload in the league.

Tolle has gone the other way, a 3.03 ERA against a 2.70 xERA. So the 1.08-run gap in New York's favour on results becomes 0.15 in Boston's on expected ERA, a swing of 1.23 runs — the largest on tonight's board.

Against it  Schlittler struck out 239 and walked 49; nothing in the peripherals is soft. His last outing was three innings on 70 pitches, which is a rested arm rather than a warning. Tolle is a rookie making his first postseason start in that building.

Sale's 2.16 ERA sits against a 2.97 xERA, a 0.81-run overperformance. Luzardo's 2.85 and 2.83 are the same number twice — the most honest season of the four starters on this page.

Results make Sale better by 0.69 runs; expected ERA makes Luzardo better by 0.14. Atlanta are nonetheless a 64% favourite, the shortest price of the four openers.

Against it  Luzardo has not started since 7 September — three weeks, with a single one-inning, four-pitch relief appearance on Sunday in between. Rust is a real cost and it is not in any of these numbers. Sale also walks 1.7 per nine, which is how a flattered ERA stays flattered.

King has been carried by 1.21 runs, the largest gap of any starter tonight, and Boyd by 0.75. Because both are flattered in the same direction, the correction mostly cancels: San Diego's edge goes from 0.70 runs on ERA to 0.24 on xERA.

The market has San Diego at 53.5%, which is about where a quarter-run starter edge and home field should put them.

Against it  King walked 70 in 185 innings and his last start was four innings and five earned against the Dodgers on 81 pitches. Boyd's 6.8 strikeouts per nine is the lowest of the six genuine starters here, which is a thin margin in a one-game context.

The listed starters are not starters. Hagen Smith has one start in eighteen appearances and 28 innings all year; AJ Blubaugh has none in sixty-four and 96 innings. Neither has thrown more than 33 pitches in an outing since August.

So the method this page runs on does not apply here. What the numbers do say: Smith's contact profile is the best of anyone pitching tonight — a 1.9% barrel rate — and Blubaugh's is the worst, at 10.3%.

Against it  Bullpen games turn on the sixth arm, not the first, and nothing above prices that. Treat the 53% as a statement about two bullpens and two line-ups, not about these two men.

Ten Elo points separate these teams — Boston 1492, the Rangers 1482 — and home ice is worth fifty. That makes Boston a 58.5% home side against a market pricing them at 51.1%, the widest gap on the five-game card.

Neither team reports an injury. Shesterkin against Swayman is the best goalie matchup of the night, and neither is confirmed.

Against it  These are preseason Elo numbers with no games behind them — on opening night the rating is a projection, not a measurement, and the market has information about camp that a preseason rating cannot. Fifty points of home ice is a league average, not a Boston number.

Carolina open the season as Elo's top-rated team at 1578 against Florida's 1545, which with home ice makes them a 61.7% favourite. The market has them at 54.3%.

The complication is in net. Daily Faceoff projects Brandon Bussi — a backup on $1.9m — for Carolina against Jacob Markstrom. A team rating does not know who is in goal, and on opening night neither does anyone else: one of tonight's ten goalies is confirmed.

Against it  Carolina are without Seth Jarvis (shoulder, injured reserve) and Florida without Brad Marchand (lower body, off-season surgery), so the injuries roughly cancel. The goalie does not: if Bussi starts and the market knows it, the market is right and the rating is stale.

Vegas at 1547 against Chicago at 1434 is the largest rating gap of the night. Elo makes it 71.9% with home ice; the market says 69.1%.

Under three points of disagreement on a heavy favourite is noise, and it is the kind of price where the juice eats the edge.

Against it  Chicago are without Connor Bedard (shoulder surgery), which a team rating built before the season may not fully carry. That argues the market is right and Elo is if anything too kind to Chicago.