The Daily Lob

Foster Griffin's 3.60 ERA flatters him: his expected ERA (what it should be, judged by how hard hitters actually hit him) is 4.35, and since Cleveland traded for him in August he has a 5.19 ERA. Drew Rasmussen's expected ERA is 3.06, and his last two starts were 14⅔ innings of one-hit-apiece baseball against the Yankees.

So the gap between the two starters is about a run and a third, the widest on the board. The odds make Tampa 60% and have not moved since they opened, which is roughly where that gap should put them.

Against it  This is Griffin's first playoff start, and in his last outing he came on behind an opener and threw 53 pitches, so Cleveland may not ask him for more than four innings. Their two best relievers, Cade Smith and Gaddis, both pitched twice in the last five days, while Tampa's whole bullpen has had four days off. Everything here points the same way as the price; there is no edge against it.

On expected ERA Logan Henderson (2.74) is a fifth of a run better than Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.94), and he has twice held the Dodgers to one run or none this year. Yet the odds make Los Angeles 55% to win, which is the price of the better lineup and the deeper starter, not the better pitcher.

Milwaukee won Game 1 2–1 last night. Skubal went five innings on 81 pitches and Misiorowski 4⅓ on 94, so both bullpens did a lot of the work.

Against it  Henderson has gone exactly five innings in each of his last four starts, and Yamamoto has gone six or more in seven straight, so the later innings tilt to the Dodgers. Ashby threw 26 pitches last night after 38 on Wednesday, and Uribe has pitched in all five Milwaukee playoff games. Three quarters of the money bet so far is on Los Angeles, and the line has still drifted slightly towards Milwaukee.

The odds make this a coin flip. The ratings give Minnesota 55%, and the money has moved a point and a half towards Vegas since the open, away from them.

Jesper Wallstedt is the case for Minnesota: in five games he has saved about six goals more than an average goalie would have, and Vegas have not yet said whether Carter Hart or Adin Hill starts for them.

Against it  Five games is a small sample, and goalies this hot almost always cool. Wallstedt also played on Saturday in Florida and has had one day off since. If Hill starts for Vegas the case for Minnesota gets stronger; if Hart starts it is roughly as described here.

New Jersey opened at 56% and are down to 52%. The ratings give them 54%, so the market has moved through most of the gap and the two now nearly agree.

The move makes sense once you see the goalies: Linus Ullmark has been one of the best in the league so far, and New Jersey are starting their backup, Nico Daws.

Against it  Ratings this early in the season are still mostly last year's, and they cannot see who is in goal. With the price now within two points of the rating there is no real edge either way; this card is here for the goalies.

Nothing has changed since Saturday's card: the ratings put these teams almost level, so with home field the Rams are a third of a point better, and every book has the Rams by three and a half.

The final injury reports cut both ways. Buffalo lose Ed Oliver, their best interior pass rusher, and receiver Joshua Palmer; but Benford and Sanders, both questionable midweek, are cleared.

Against it  Buffalo +3.5 is now priced at −115 to −120 across the board, which means the books are getting Buffalo money and the line is more likely to drop to 3 than rise to 4. Taking the points is the popular side. D.J. Moore is a game-time decision with a shoulder, and Buffalo fly cross-country for a night game.

The hard-court ratings make Alex de Minaur a 69% chance. The odds make him 52%, seventeen points lower.

That is not the market missing something. De Minaur retired from the Beijing final against Djokovic six days ago with an adductor injury and was due to have scans here; the results have not been published.

Against it  Everything argues against taking the ratings' side. He has won twice here since, but one of those was a walkover, and money has kept coming for Khachanov all day. This card is here to explain the gap, not to back it.

The odds give Alexander Zverev 72%. The ratings give him 78%.

Alexander Bublik leads their head-to-head 3–1, but the last meeting was in 2023, and two of his three wins were on grass and indoor courts.

Against it  Zverev grabbed his left ankle during his second-round match and played on; nothing has been said about it since. Bublik has come through two close matches here, including Nakashima in a final-set tiebreak, and the price has drifted a little his way.

The odds make Hubert Hurkacz a slight favourite at 52%. The ratings give him 46%, so they have Alejandro Davidovich Fokina as the better side.

Davidovich Fokina leads their meetings 5–2, beat Hurkacz in the Chengdu final two weeks ago, and has won six straight since coming back from injury.

Against it  Hurkacz has beaten Djokovic and Zhou here and serves well enough to win any match in two tiebreaks. Davidovich Fokina needed a final-set tiebreak to get past Tiafoe on Sunday, and he was out from July until late September.

The odds give Jakub Mensik 59%, the ratings 60%. There is nothing between them.

The story is Gea, who has beaten Humbert and the third seed Ben Shelton this week and is 29–5 on hard courts this season, and the money has come his way.

Against it  Carded because it was asked for, not because there is an edge. The line has moved four points towards Gea, which is the market already taking the run seriously.