The Daily Lob

Tyler Glasnow's expected ERA (what it should be, judged by how hard hitters actually hit him) is 2.88; Shane Drohan's is 3.81, and Milwaukee are using Drohan only to open a bullpen game. The pick is the Dodgers.

The money has gone the other way: Los Angeles opened at −185 and are now −155, about four points of win chance towards Milwaukee.

Against it  Drohan will probably not face the lineup twice, so the starter comparison matters less than usual, and Milwaukee's bullpen has been the best thing in this series. Glasnow walked five in his last start and has had back trouble this year. Last night's pick was the Dodgers too, behind a better starter, and Snell gave up three home runs.

Seattle have the better quarterback, the best defence in the league against a middling Denver offence, and they face a secondary without Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga. Three categories to Denver's one, so the pick is Seattle −2.5.

The rating itself has no quarrel with the line: it makes Seattle two-point favourites, half a point from the market.

Against it  That is the catch with this card: the categories say who is better, and the spread already says Seattle. The ratings were set before Week 5, when Seattle lost at home to San Francisco. The total has fallen a point and a half to 40.5, and in a low-scoring game a field goal decides whether 2.5 is covered.

Edges: SEA 3 · DEN 1 · even 2

Philadelphia have had far the worst of the chances of any team on tonight's slate, lost all four games last week by a combined nine goals, and are without Konecny and two top-four defencemen. Detroit have been unlucky: level on chances this season and five goals down. The pick is Detroit.

The odds give Detroit 56% and the ratings 56%, so nobody is arguing about the favourite, only about how much.

Against it  Detroit have not won in regulation for a week either, and their goalie, Tarasov, has only two games this season. Philadelphia's goalie, Woll, is not confirmed.

Edges: PHI 0 · DET 6 · even 0

Vancouver lost all four games last week by a combined 20–7 and have had the second-worst share of the chances on the slate. Florida are short of Barkov, Marchand, Gudas and Markstrom, and still win every category except injuries. The pick is Florida.

At 72% this is a short price: a win returns a third of the stake.

Against it  Florida's injury list is long and includes their best two forwards. Merilainen has been decent this season for Vancouver after a very poor one last year.

Edges: VAN 1 · FLA 5 · even 0

Vegas have had a goal a game more of the chances than their opponents this season and went 3–1 last week. The pick is Vegas, at 73%.

Calgary's season is a warning, though: their chances are almost level and their goal difference is −17, the biggest gap between the two on the board.

Against it  That kind of gap does not last, and Calgary have had more of the chances than Vegas over the last three games. Both goalies have been below average.

Edges: CGY 1 · VGK 4 · even 1

The Islanders are four goals up on the season while being outplayed on chances, the clearest case on the slate of a team ahead of itself. Ottawa win the season row, the rating and last week. The pick is Ottawa.

Linus Ullmark has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, about seven goals better than average in five games.

Against it  Ullmark was well below average last season, so we score the goalie row even. Ottawa are missing Sanderson and Eklund; the Islanders are without Barzal.

Edges: NYI 0 · OTT 3 · even 3

St Louis have had the better of the chances over the last three games, went unbeaten in regulation last week, and Minnesota are missing Faber, Spurgeon and both Folignos. Three categories to one, so the pick is St Louis at +120.

The money agrees: Minnesota have drifted from −160 to −142.

Against it  The rating disagrees strongly, giving Minnesota 65%, and Jesper Wallstedt has been the best goalie in this edition: about seven better than average in six games. St Louis's Hofer is not confirmed, and Buchnevich is away for the birth of his child.

Edges: STL 3 · MIN 1 · even 2

Utah have had the most of the chances of any team on the slate this season and have been unlucky over the last three games; Edmonton are seven goals ahead of their chances and missing Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and goalie Andersen. The pick is Utah.

Their stand-in, Devon Levi, has 13 NHL games and has been well below average in them.

Against it  The line has swung from Edmonton −140 to Utah −115 and we could not find out why. A move that size without a public reason is worth respecting, and it has taken most of the value.

Edges: UTA 4 · EDM 2 · even 0

Nashville have had more of the chances over three games and the season, rate higher, and lost less last week. The pick is Nashville.

Juuse Saros was nine goals worse than average last season, though, and Alex Nedeljkovic has been about average.

Against it  The money has moved two points to San Jose since the open, and this is the narrowest of the seven: four categories to two.

Edges: SJS 2 · NSH 4 · even 0

The odds give Daniil Medvedev 65%. The hard-court ratings give him 60%, which leaves Tommy Paul at 40% against the odds' 35%. The pick is Paul.

Paul has not dropped a set this week and saved eight break points against Bergs; Medvedev did not face one against Tsitsipas.

Against it  Medvedev leads their meetings 4–1 and is 3–0 against Paul on hard courts, and the money has moved three points towards him since the open. This is his first event since he was defaulted in Beijing, and he has looked untroubled by it.

The odds give Rafael Jodar 53%, the ratings 55%.

Jodar has come from a set down in all three of his matches here. Casper Ruud has played 35 minutes since Sunday: Auger-Aliassime retired with a knee injury at 5–2 in the first set.

Against it  The money has drifted four points towards Ruud since the open. They have never played.