For each game we work out what the chances should be, then set that against what the betting odds say. Where the two disagree most, we write it up. One page per sport.
Who is pitching, what his numbers should be, and where the odds disagree.
Team ratings against the money line, with the goalie front and centre.
The season tips off later this month.
Power ratings against the spread, with the week's injury news.
Hard-court ratings against the match odds, with form and head-to-head.
Tournament winners and golfer-against-golfer matchups.
| Date | Sport | Game | Pick | Price | Why | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Cilic v Basilashvili | Cilic | 2.25 | ratings 71%, odds 42% | pending | |
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Mannarino v Vukic | Vukic | 2.43 | ratings 45%, odds 39% | pending | |
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Kecmanovic v Duckworth | Duckworth | 2.45 | ratings 44%, odds 38% | pending | |
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Basavareddy v Collignon | Collignon | 2.22 | ratings 55%, odds 43% | pending | |
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Hanfmann v Damm | Hanfmann | 1.79 | ratings 59%, odds 53% | pending | |
| Sun 18 Oct | ATP | Sonego v Kouame | Sonego | 1.61 | ratings 80%, odds 59% | pending | |
| Thu 15 Oct | MLB | MIL at LAD | LAD | 1.65 | Glasnow 2.88 xERA v Drohan 3.81 (opening a bullpen game) | L | -1.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NFL | SEA at DEN | SEA −2.5 | 1.91 | categories SEA 3, DEN 1, even 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | PHI at DET | DET | 1.70 | categories DET 6, PHI 0 | W | +0.70 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | VAN at FLA | FLA | 1.34 | categories FLA 5, VAN 1 | W | +0.34 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | CGY at VGK | VGK | 1.31 | categories VGK 4, CGY 1, even 1 | W | +0.31 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | NYI at OTT | OTT | 1.62 | categories OTT 3, NYI 0, even 3 | W | +0.62 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | STL at MIN | STL | 2.20 | categories STL 3, MIN 1, even 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | UTA at EDM | UTA | 1.87 | categories UTA 4, EDM 2 | W | +0.87 |
| Thu 15 Oct | NHL | SJS at NSH | NSH | 1.77 | categories NSH 4, SJS 2 | L | -1.00 |
| Thu 15 Oct | ATP | Medvedev v Paul | Paul | 2.74 | ratings 40%, odds 35% | L | -1.00 |
| Wed 14 Oct | NHL | MTL at WSH | WSH | 1.83 | ratings 59%, odds 53% | W | +0.83 |
| Wed 14 Oct | NHL | DAL at COL | COL | 1.62 | ratings 63%, odds 59% | L | -1.00 |
| Wed 14 Oct | MLB | MIL at LAD | LAD | 1.56 | Snell 2.17 xERA v Gasser 4.27 | L | -1.00 |
| Wed 14 Oct | ATP | Gea v Davidovich Fokina | Davidovich Fokina | 1.83 | ratings 60%, odds 52% | P | +0.00 |
| Tue 13 Oct | MLB | CLE at TB | CLE | 2.13 | Messick 3.15 xERA v Peralta 3.84 | L | -1.00 |
| Tue 13 Oct | ATP | Paul v Bergs | Paul | 1.45 | ratings 71%, odds 65% | W | +0.45 |
| Tue 13 Oct | ATP | Jodar v Van de Zandschulp | Jodar | 1.50 | ratings 66%, odds 63% | W | +0.50 |
| Mon 12 Oct | MLB | CLE at TB | TB | 1.60 | Rasmussen 3.06 xERA v Griffin 4.35 | L | -1.00 |
| Mon 12 Oct | NHL | VGK at MIN | MIN | 1.91 | ratings 55%, odds 50% | W | +0.91 |
| Mon 12 Oct | ATP | De Minaur v Khachanov | De Minaur | 1.81 | ratings 69%, odds 52% | W | +0.81 |
| Mon 12 Oct | ATP | Bublik v Zverev | Zverev | 1.31 | ratings 78%, odds 72% | W | +0.31 |
| Mon 12 Oct | ATP | Hurkacz v Davidovich Fokina | Davidovich Fokina | 1.97 | ratings 54%, odds 48% | W | +0.97 |
| Sun 11 Oct | ATP | Hurkacz v Zhou | Hurkacz | 1.13 | ratings 91%, odds 84% | W | +0.13 |
| Sun 11 Oct | ATP | Davidovich Fokina v Tiafoe | Tiafoe | 1.90 | ratings 56%, odds 50% | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | ATP | Bublik v Nakashima | Nakashima | 1.78 | ratings 58%, odds 53% | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | ATP | Zverev v Halys | Zverev | 1.13 | ratings 88%, odds 84% | W | +0.13 |
| Sun 11 Oct | ATP | F. Cerundolo v Mensik | Cerundolo | 2.28 | ratings 45%, odds 41% | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | NFL | CHI at GB | GB +1.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY GB −2.35, market CHI −1.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | NFL | BUF at LAR | BUF +3.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY LAR −0.35, market LAR −3.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | NFL | PHI v JAX | PHI +7.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY JAX −4.4, market JAX −7.5 | W | +0.91 |
| Sun 11 Oct | NFL | CLE at NYJ | CLE +2.5 | 1.91 | ELWAY CLE −0.55, market NYJ −2.5 | L | -1.00 |
| Sun 11 Oct | MLB | LAD at MIL | MIL | 1.89 | Misiorowski 2.13 xERA v Skubal 2.94 | W | +0.89 |
Tennis: a pick when our win chance and the odds' are three points apart. Baseball: when one starter's expected ERA is half a run better. Hockey and football (from 15 October): when one side wins at least two more of the category rows on the card than the other; before that, hockey was Elo against the odds and football ELWAY against the spread. One unit at the price on the card. Everything else is a pass and is not graded. Grading started with the 11 October cards. Price is in decimal odds: 1.80 returns 0.80 units on a win.