The Daily Lob — MLB, Wednesday 16 September 2026

First baseball edition · build 2026-09-16 20:46 UTC. Six of the eleven games that had not started when this went out. Numbers are real and sourced; nothing here is scored yet — the running scorecard and the value backtest are tennis machinery and baseball needs its own before these figures can carry a record.

Cards rank by misprice — the gap between the starter advantage implied by ERA and the advantage implied by expected stats, in runs over five innings. Merrill Kelly has a 4.97 ERA and a 6.61 xERA across 152 innings, the largest well-sampled gap on the slate, and Arizona is favoured because of the first number. Four afternoon games had already started and are excluded; five more are excluded by an innings gate that did not exist this morning.

The gate, and why it was added today

The framework gated the versus-roster metric at 70 plate appearances and left the season metric ungated. Run against a live slate for the first time, it ranked Phillies at Nationals top of the board on a misprice of 1.41 runs — driven entirely by a Washington starter with four innings and zero starts on the year, whose ERA and xERA sit on seven batted balls.

So innings are gated the same way plate appearances are: 100+ IP full sample, 40–99 IP · thin ranks with a flag, and under 40 IP · noise makes the whole game unrankable. It is enforced by an assertion that fails the build, not by editorial care.

It removes five of the eleven games, and leaves exactly one in which both starters have thrown a hundred innings. That is a fact about mid-September rather than an accident — rosters at this point are full of call-ups, injury returns and openers — and a page that runs daily through October should expect it rather than treat it as a bad night.

Six games · biggest misprice first

01MLB Daikin Park, Houston8:10 PM ET

Daniel Lynch IV

KC · LHP · Age 29 · 7 GS 71.2 IP · thin

Cristian Javier

HOU · RHP · Age 29 · 10 GS 55.2 IP · thin

First five innings six books, margin removed

KC 42.8%HOU 57.2%

KC +120 / HOU −155 · full game 41.0% / 59.0% · total 9.0 (F5 4.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says-1.10

Priced on xERA — what the contact says-0.30

MISPRICE · HOU under-priced0.80

This matchup

Lynch vs HOU 24 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.081
xwOBA allowed	.196
Gap	-0.115
K% / BB%	12.5 / 4.2

Javier vs KC 34 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.273
xwOBA allowed	.389
Gap	-0.116
K% / BB%	14.7 / 2.9

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	3.52	5.50
xERA	4.17	4.71
ERA − xERA	-0.65	+0.79
Innings	71.2	55.2
Contact allowed
K%	16.6	22.6
BB%	7.5	9.5
Barrel%	5.9	9.2
Hard-hit%	37.1	34.4
Exit velo	88.9	89.2

Recent starts

Lynch

		IP	ER	K
Sep 9	vs AZ	5.0	2	3
Sep 4	at TOR	5.0	5	0
Aug 29	at CLE	3.1	2	3
Aug 23	vs DET	4.1	2	2
Aug 18	vs ATH	4.0	1	1

Javier

		IP	ER	K
Sep 10	at PHI	6.0	1	5
Sep 4	vs AZ	5.0	1	8
Aug 23	vs ATH	4.0	3	8
Aug 18	vs LAA	4.0	2	5
Aug 9	at SD	5.0	4	2

The angleKansas City's starter has the better ERA by two runs and the market still makes Houston a −155 favourite in the first five. The expected stats side with the market: Lynch's xERA is 4.17 against a 3.52 ERA, Javier's is 4.71 against a 5.50, and the gap between them shrinks from 1.10 runs to 0.30. This is the widest misprice on the board and it is the market that looks right. Both men are inside the thin band — 71 and 56 innings — so it ranks first with an asterisk rather than a flourish.

02MLB Chase Field, Phoenix9:40 PM ET

Ryan Gusto

MIA · RHP · Age 27 · 16 GS 78.1 IP · thin

Merrill Kelly

AZ · RHP · Age 37 · 27 GS 152.0 IP

First five innings six books, margin removed

MIA 48.0%AZ 52.0%

MIA −105 / AZ −118 · full game 44.7% / 55.3% · total 9.0 (F5 4.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says-0.46

Priced on xERA — what the contact says-0.98

MISPRICE · MIA under-priced0.52

This matchup

Gusto vs AZ 17 PA · noise

wOBA allowed	.292
xwOBA allowed	.306
Gap	-0.014
K% / BB%	23.5 / 11.8

Kelly vs MIA 64 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.340
xwOBA allowed	.288
Gap	+0.052
K% / BB%	23.4 / 4.7

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	4.14	4.97
xERA	4.84	6.61
ERA − xERA	-0.70	-1.64
Innings	78.1	152.0
Contact allowed
K%	18.7	15.5
BB%	7.2	10.2
Barrel%	8.7	11.5
Hard-hit%	42.9	42.0
Exit velo	89.6	89.9

Recent starts

Gusto

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	vs LAD	6.0	2	3
Sep 5	vs CHC	4.2	5	5
Aug 31	at WSH	4.1	1	4
Aug 26	vs BOS	5.2	0	2
Aug 21	vs WSH	4.0	0	2

Kelly

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	vs TEX	4.1	1	3
Sep 4	at HOU	6.0	3	4
Aug 29	at SF	7.0	0	7
Aug 24	vs CHC	5.2	3	4
Aug 18	at BOS	4.0	6	2

The angleMerrill Kelly is the find of the night. A 4.97 ERA against a 6.61 xERA over 152 innings — a 1.64-run overperformance on a full season's sample, with an 11.5% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit. Arizona is a home favourite and Kelly is why the price sits where it does. Gusto has been flattered too, by 0.70 runs, but on half the innings — so on expected stats Miami's starter edge widens rather than narrows.

03MLB PNC Park, Pittsburgh6:40 PM ET

Logan Henderson

MIL · RHP · Age 24 · 16 GS 88.1 IP · thin

Jared Jones

PIT · RHP · Age 24 · 18 GS 85.2 IP · thin

First five innings six books, margin removed

MIL 53.8%PIT 46.2%

MIL −132 / PIT +103 · full game 53.8% / 46.2% · total 7.5 (F5 3.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says-0.98

Priced on xERA — what the contact says-0.46

MISPRICE · PIT under-priced0.52

This matchup

Henderson vs PIT 28 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.284
xwOBA allowed	.353
Gap	-0.069
K% / BB%	21.4 / 10.7

Jones vs MIL 36 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.365
xwOBA allowed	.330
Gap	+0.035
K% / BB%	25.0 / 2.8

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	2.34	4.10
xERA	2.61	3.43
ERA − xERA	-0.27	+0.67
Innings	88.1	85.2
Contact allowed
K%	30.2	28.0
BB%	4.6	8.4
Barrel%	8.5	8.0
Hard-hit%	37.1	38.7
Exit velo	88.2	89.4

Recent starts

Henderson

		IP	ER	K
Sep 9	vs CHC	5.0	0	6
Sep 3	at CHC	7.0	2	7
Aug 28	vs TEX	7.0	1	7
Aug 22	vs ATL	6.0	1	4
Aug 16	at LAD	7.0	1	6

Jones

		IP	ER	K
Sep 10	at CWS	7.0	0	8
Sep 4	vs LAA	6.0	0	9
Aug 28	at STL	4.2	3	6
Aug 22	at LAD	4.0	2	5
Aug 15	vs BOS	5.0	1	7

The angleA 2.34 ERA against a 4.10 makes Milwaukee a road favourite. The expected numbers halve that: Henderson at 2.61 is close to the real thing, but Jones has the largest positive season gap of anyone carded tonight — a 4.10 ERA against a 3.43 xERA, and a 28% strikeout rate underneath it. He has also just thrown seven innings of one-hit ball at the White Sox and six shutout against the Angels.

04MLB Wrigley Field, Chicago7:40 PM ET

JR Ritchie

ATL · RHP · Age 23 · 8 GS 58.0 IP · thin

Shota Imanaga

CHC · LHP · Age 32 · 29 GS 162.1 IP

First five innings six books, margin removed

ATL 38.5%CHC 61.5%

ATL +145 / CHC −185 · full game 40.8% / 59.2% · total 7.5 (F5 4.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says+0.34

Priced on xERA — what the contact says+0.70

MISPRICE · CHC under-priced0.36

This matchup

Ritchie vs CHC 15 PA · noise

wOBA allowed	.258
xwOBA allowed	.278
Gap	-0.020
K% / BB%	26.7 / 20.0

Imanaga vs ATL 65 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.309
xwOBA allowed	.334
Gap	-0.025
K% / BB%	20.0 / 3.1

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	4.50	3.88
xERA	5.11	3.85
ERA − xERA	-0.61	+0.03
Innings	58.0	162.1
Contact allowed
K%	20.7	23.6
BB%	14.1	5.6
Barrel%	9.3	9.7
Hard-hit%	39.5	36.6
Exit velo	89.6	88.6

Recent starts

Ritchie

		IP	ER	K
Aug 2	vs WSH	4.0	2	4
Jun 23	at SD	5.0	4	7
Jun 17	vs SF	5.0	5	4
May 18	at MIA	4.0	5	4
May 13	vs CHC	4.1	1	4

Imanaga

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	vs PIT	6.0	2	4
Sep 4	at MIA	6.0	1	4
Aug 30	vs CIN	5.0	6	4
Aug 23	at SEA	2.0	1	4
Aug 17	vs CWS	6.0	3	10

⚠Ritchie — Six weeks without a start. His last major-league start was 2 August — his eighth of the year, and there has been nothing since. The five starts listed run back to 13 May. A 23-year-old making his first start in six weeks is a different proposition from the pitcher those innings describe, and neither ERA nor xERA knows it.

The angleImanaga is the most honestly-priced pitcher on the page — 3.88 ERA, 3.85 xERA, across 162 innings, the two numbers agreeing to within four hundredths. The disagreement is all on the other side, and it is not really a disagreement about talent: Ritchie's 4.50 against a 5.11 xERA sits on 58 innings, and he has not started a major-league game since 2 August. See the flag.

05MLB Globe Life Field, Arlington8:05 PM ET

Jake Bennett

BOS · LHP · Age 25 · 18 GS 105.0 IP

MacKenzie Gore

TEX · LHP · Age 27 · 31 GS 161.2 IP

First five innings six books, margin removed

BOS 48.3%TEX 51.7%

BOS −106 / TEX −122 · full game 49.9% / 50.1% · total 8.0 (F5 4.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says-0.52

Priced on xERA — what the contact says-0.28

MISPRICE · TEX under-priced0.23

This matchup

Bennett vs TEX

No prior matchup data.

Gore vs BOS 46 PA · thin

wOBA allowed	.459
xwOBA allowed	.394
Gap	+0.065
K% / BB%	21.7 / 13.0

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	3.69	4.62
xERA	3.51	4.02
ERA − xERA	+0.18	+0.60
Innings	105.0	161.2
Contact allowed
K%	19.9	24.4
BB%	4.5	9.4
Barrel%	8.0	8.5
Hard-hit%	38.7	40.7
Exit velo	88.5	88.9

Recent starts

Bennett

		IP	ER	K
Sep 9	vs LAA	5.1	6	2
Sep 3	at BAL	6.0	3	7
Aug 29	at NYY	6.0	0	7
Aug 23	vs SF	7.0	3	6
Aug 14	at PIT	4.0	4	6

Gore

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	at AZ	4.0	4	2
Sep 6	vs TB	3.0	5	1
Sep 1	vs ATH	5.1	1	4
Aug 26	at CWS	3.2	4	4
Aug 21	vs LAA	6.0	0	7

The angleThe only game tonight with both starters past a hundred innings — and there is almost nothing in it. The market has it at a coin flip, the ERA read splits the starters by half a run, expected stats by a quarter. Gore is the more interesting of the two, 0.60 runs under-rewarded on the season, but he has also been hit hard in three of his last four. A page that ranks by disagreement should be willing to print the game that says there is not one.

06MLB Angel Stadium, Anaheim9:38 PM ET

George Kirby

SEA · RHP · Age 28 · 28 GS 165.1 IP

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA · LHP · Age 35 · 11 GS 53.0 IP · thin

First five innings six books, margin removed

SEA 54.1%LAA 45.9%

SEA −136 / LAA +105 · full game 56.1% / 43.9% · total 8.0 (F5 4.5)

Starter gap over five inningsruns

Priced on ERA — what the scoreboard says-0.28

Priced on xERA — what the contact says-0.48

MISPRICE · SEA under-priced0.21

This matchup

Kirby vs LAA 86 PA

wOBA allowed	.361
xwOBA allowed	.349
Gap	+0.012
K% / BB%	30.2 / 8.1

Kikuchi vs SEA 103 PA

wOBA allowed	.323
xwOBA allowed	.324
Gap	-0.001
K% / BB%	24.3 / 5.8

Season & process

Season — results against process
ERA	4.25	4.75
xERA	4.13	5.00
ERA − xERA	+0.12	-0.25
Innings	165.1	53.0
Contact allowed
K%	19.9	22.9
BB%	5.6	9.7
Barrel%	6.8	8.9
Hard-hit%	40.4	44.6
Exit velo	89.6	91.1

Recent starts

Kirby

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	at ATH	6.0	4	5
Sep 5	vs ATH	6.2	3	5
Aug 31	at BOS	5.0	5	2
Aug 25	vs PHI	7.2	1	9
Aug 20	at MIL	3.1	6	3

Kikuchi

		IP	ER	K
Sep 11	at WSH	4.0	1	5
Sep 5	at PIT	6.0	0	6
Aug 30	vs PHI	7.0	2	6
Aug 23	at TEX	5.0	5	4
Apr 29	at CWS	2.0	0	1

⚠Kikuchi — Four months missing from the middle of his season. Eleven starts, no relief, and nothing at all between 29 April and 23 August. His fifth-most-recent start is therefore in April. Two sources agree the gap is real rather than a truncated log. The season rates are built on two disconnected pieces of a year.

The angleThe narrowest misprice that clears the gate, and the best vs-roster evidence on the page. Kikuchi has faced this Seattle roster 103 times and Kirby has faced the Angels 86 — two of the three largest samples on the slate, in the same game. Both say almost exactly nothing: Kikuchi's wOBA and xwOBA against Seattle differ by one thousandth. Kikuchi's fifth-most-recent start was in April, which is the story here.

Five games the gate excludes

Printed with the reason, because the excluded games are where most of tonight's best individual numbers live — and because an exclusion table is the only honest way to show a gate doing work.

PHI @ WSH	6:45	Wheeler v Simpson	The game the gate was written for. Washington's Jared Simpson has 4.0 innings and zero starts this season; his 6.75 ERA and 4.10 xERA rest on seven batted balls. Ungated, this game topped the board at a misprice of 1.41 runs. It is not a signal, it is a rounding error with a uniform on. Zack Wheeler's own line is worth recording — 3.14 ERA, 3.03 xERA over 143 innings, and 106 plate appearances against this Washington roster, the largest vs-roster sample tonight, at a near-neutral −.008.
BAL @ NYM	7:10	Bassitt v Stock	Robert Stock has 30.1 innings. Chris Bassitt's line is usable (4.88 / 5.10 over 90 innings) and he has held the Mets to a .225 wOBA across 80 plate appearances while deserving .276 — flattered by that roster, not the reverse — but one usable starter does not make a rankable game.
SD @ COL	8:40	Ray v Adams	Colorado's Mason Adams has 18.2 innings. And this game is where the vs-roster metric breaks, which matters more than the card would have. Robbie Ray has faced the Rockies 81 times for a .393 wOBA against a .314 xwOBA — nominally the largest under-rewarding on the slate. But those plate appearances are disproportionately at altitude and xwOBA is park-neutral, so wOBA exceeding it is what Coors produces regardless of how a pitcher threw. Every pitcher who has faced Colorado will show this. The metric needs a park adjustment before it can use these rows, and until it has one, Colorado vs-roster splits are excluded. Ray's season line is real and large: 3.57 ERA against a 4.84 xERA over 156 innings.
LAD @ CIN	6:40	Snell v Abbott	Blake Snell has 37.2 innings across seven starts. What is on them is remarkable — a 14.0% hard-hit rate and one barrel on 86 batted balls, an 81.8 mph average exit velocity — but it is a seventh of a season and the game is unrankable. The misprice would have been 0.02 runs in any case: Snell at 1.91/2.10 and Abbott at 4.78/5.01 are both priced about right.
ATH @ TB	6:40	Basso v Martinez	Brady Basso has no xERA at all. The Statcast block does not render on his Savant page — confirmed on two passes — so no expected line exists for him and the game cannot be ranked. A pity, because Tampa Bay is a −185 favourite built on Nick Martinez's 2.92 ERA, and Martinez's xERA is 4.08 over 166 innings, a 1.16-run overperformance on a 14.8% strikeout rate. The second-largest well-sampled gap on the slate sits in a game the gate will not let the page rank.

What is still missing

No model probability, and no caret above the bar. Turning a run gap into a win probability needs a conversion fitted against actual first-five-innings results. Until that exists the cards rank in runs, which is measured, rather than in probability points, which would be invented. The bar shows the market alone.

Misprice is not a claim that the market is wrong by that many runs. A moneyline prices offence, bullpen and park as well as the two starters; it is not a pure starter gap. What the number measures is narrower and worth stating exactly: the distance between the naive ERA read of the two starters and the expected-stats read. On card 01 the market plainly agrees with the expected read already.

A source correction. The framework named Baseball Almanac as the primary game-log source. It is unusable: its pitching-log page ignores the player parameter and returns whichever player was most recently searched — it served Craig Kimbrel's log for two different pitchers tonight, and Yusei Kikuchi's for two more. Every log here comes from FOX Sports, StatMuse or CBS, with the player's name asserted on the page before any row was trusted.

The tennis archive is untouched

All 22 editions of the tennis brief are still live and unchanged — the archive holds them, and methods still describes the tennis method, which now needs a baseball section.

Built 2026-09-16 20:46 UTC. Sources: Baseball Savant player pages (season Statcast, xERA) and probable-pitchers (career versus current roster); Sportsbook Review six-book first-five-innings and full-game moneylines and totals, all four pages verified showing 16 September; game logs from FOX Sports, StatMuse and CBS Sports. Odds direction cross-checked against covers.com on all eleven games.