A short day: NLCS Game 3, two hockey games where every team played last night, and two Shanghai quarterfinals overnight. Four cards make a pick, and from today every pick is graded on each sport's page. How to read this: for each game we work out what the chances should be, then compare that with what the betting odds say.
Blake Snell's expected ERA (what it should be, judged by how hard hitters actually hit him) is 2.17, and he has not allowed a home run all year. Robert Gasser's is 4.27, and the Dodgers scored seven runs off him in two starts this season.
That is the biggest gap between two starters we have carded this postseason, and the odds make the Dodgers 61%. The pick is the Dodgers.
Against it Snell has thrown only 42⅔ innings this year around a shoulder problem, elbow surgery in May and a groin strain in September, and he has not gone past four innings in any of his last three outings. His walk rate is high. If he leaves in the fourth, this becomes a bullpen game, and Vesia and Scott pitched in both games in Milwaukee.
| Starter | IP | ERA | xERA | ERA − xERA | K% | BB% | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Exit velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert GasserMIL · LHP | 109.1 | 3.87 | 4.27 | −0.40 | 22.3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 34.0 | 86.5 |
| Blake SnellLAD · LHP | 42.2 | 1.90 | 2.17 | −0.27 | 31.8 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 15.8 | 82.9 |
| Gasser | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Pitches | Fastball | Whiff % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | at SD | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 56 | 93.4 | 22 |
| Sep 25 | vs STL | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 87 | 92.8 | 31 |
| Sep 19 | at BAL | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 107 | 93.2 | 19 |
| Sep 13 | vs CIN | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 89 | 94.0 | 24 |
| Sep 7 | vs CHC | 4.2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 83 | 93.7 | 22 |
| Snell | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Pitches | Fastball | Whiff % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | vs ATL | 3.2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 97.0 | 35 | |
| Sep 26 | at SF | 4.0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 77 | 96.9 | 26 | |
| Sep 16 | at CIN | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | left with groin tightness | ||
| Sep 11 | at MIA | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 101 | 95.6 | 38 | |
| Sep 4 | vs WSH | 6.0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 100 | 96.0 | 31 |
The ratings give Washington 59% and the odds 53%, which makes Washington the pick under our rules. But Montreal win three of the six categories below and Washington only one: Montreal have been creating more than they allow and losing anyway, while Washington are winning more than their chances deserve.
The money agrees with the categories, not the rating: it has moved three points towards Montreal since the open.
Against it Six games a team, and two backup goalies. Dobes has been poor this season but was one of the better goalies in the league last year; if he is the version from last season, Montreal is the better side tonight.
| MTL | WSH | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 47% · opened 44% | 53% · opened 56% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 10.8, allowed 9.2 (+1.6) · actually scored 5, let in 8 | Created 10.5, allowed 12.0 (−1.5) · scored 8, let in 10 | MTL |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Expected level (19.9 v 19.9) · actually −5: due | Expected −4.0 · actually +1: ahead of their play | MTL |
| Goalie tonight | Dobes (confirmed): .856, about four goals worse than average in three games · last season about 17 better | Lindgren (confirmed): .931 in one game · last season about five worse | even |
| Ratings (Elo) | 41% | 59% at home | WSH |
| Injuries | Kapanen out all season; Matheson missed Monday's practice | Sandin on long-term injured reserve; Dubois (illness) and Tuch missed Monday's practice | even |
| Last week | 2–1, goal difference −1 (both wins in shootouts) | 2–2, goal difference 0, lost the last two | MTL |
Edges: MTL 3 · WSH 1 · even 2
The ratings give Colorado 63% and the odds 59%; the pick is Colorado. Every category that can be called goes their way: they create more than Dallas, over three games and over the season, and their likely goalie, Scott Wedgewood, was one of the best in the league last year.
Colorado also won last night's game, 3–2 in Dallas.
Against it The money has already moved three points to Colorado, so some of this is taken. Colorado's +10 goal difference is well ahead of what their chances deserve, and Wedgewood is not yet confirmed.
| DAL | COL | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 41% · opened 44% | 59% · opened 56% | — |
| Expected v actual goals, last 3 | Created 7.4, allowed 9.0 (−1.6) · actually +3: ahead of their play | Created 10.8, allowed 8.2 (+2.6) · actually +2 | COL |
| Expected v actual goals, season | Expected +0.6 · actually +3 | Expected +5.5, the best of these four teams · actually +10 | COL |
| Goalie tonight | DeSmith (confirmed): .923 in one game · last season about ten better than average | Wedgewood (likely): .897 in one game · last season about 23 better than average | COL |
| Ratings (Elo) | 37% | 63% at home | COL |
| Injuries | nothing current found | nothing current found | even |
| Last week | 1–1–1, goal difference +2 | 2–2, goal difference +1, won last night's meeting | even |
Edges: DAL 0 · COL 4 · even 2
The odds make this close to even, with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 52%. The hard-court ratings give him 60%. The pick is Davidovich Fokina.
Gea has had the week of his life, beating Shelton and Mensik and going 30–5 on hard courts this year, and the money has come for him. The ratings were last updated before any of it.
Against it That is exactly the case where the ratings are most likely to be behind. Davidovich Fokina also needed final-set tiebreaks in each of his last two matches, and only came back from a long injury lay-off three weeks ago.
| Odds say | Davidovich Fokina 52% · Gea 48% |
| Ratings say | Davidovich Fokina 60% · 8 points apart, on Davidovich Fokina |
| Line | Opened Gea 2.06 / Davidovich Fokina 1.84 · now 1.99 / 1.92 · 2 points towards Gea |
| This week | Gea: Faria, Humbert, Shelton 7–6 7–6, Mensik 7–6 6–4 · Davidovich Fokina: Brooksby, Tiafoe 7–6 4–6 7–6, Hurkacz 1–6 6–3 7–6 |
| Head-to-head | never played |
The odds give Alexander Zverev 63%, the ratings 64%.
Both come in with a question about their fitness: De Minaur retired from the Beijing final with an adductor injury a week ago and has won both completed matches here in straight sets; Zverev was seen holding an ankle earlier in the week.
Against it Nothing to argue with. The money has come for De Minaur, three points since the open, which says the market is less worried about his adductor than it was.
| Odds say | Zverev 63% · De Minaur 37% |
| Ratings say | Zverev 64% · under a point apart |
| Line | Opened Zverev 1.47 / De Minaur 2.87 · now 1.55 / 2.65 · 3 points towards De Minaur |
| Head-to-head | Zverev 8–2 on the tour (De Minaur's other two wins were at the Laver Cup) |