Three night games where the first-five price can be checked against the contact quality, and the football game. Tonight the market is close to right almost everywhere — the largest disagreement on the board is a quarter of a run.
Pivetta and Glasnow arrive with the same expected ERA to within two hundredths — 2.92 against 2.94 — and Pivetta owns the better raw ERA of the two.
The market still prices Los Angeles at 60.7% over five innings, which means essentially none of this number is about the men on the mound. It is the lineups, in a market that is supposed to be the pitchers'.
Against it Pivetta has thrown 30 innings all season around elbow inflammation, so his expected line is built on a sample a single bad start would move. A Dodgers lineup edge is also a real thing to pay for, even in five innings.
| Starter | IP | ERA | xERA | ERA − xERA | K% | BB% | Barrel% | Hard-hit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick PivettaSD · RHP | 30.0 | 3.30 | 2.92 | +0.38 | 29.2 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 35.9 |
| Tyler GlasnowLAD · RHP | 67.2 | 3.46 | 2.94 | +0.52 | 33.0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 39.2 |
On ERA the starters are 2.18 runs apart and Seattle is a 66% favourite over five innings. On expected ERA the gap is 1.93.
Both pitchers have been unlucky rather than lucky — Rodriguez by 0.58 runs, Woo by 0.33 — so the correction is small and it runs towards the Angels.
Against it A quarter of a run is inside the noise, and Rodriguez's 45.6% hard-hit rate is the worst of the six starters on this page. This is a lean, not a play.
| Starter | IP | ERA | xERA | ERA − xERA | K% | BB% | Barrel% | Hard-hit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson RodriguezLAA · RHP | 87.0 | 6.10 | 5.52 | +0.58 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 45.6 |
| Bryan WooSEA · RHP | 167.2 | 3.92 | 3.59 | +0.33 | 24.4 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 42.8 |
Atlanta is a 64% favourite on a 1.86-run ERA gap, and the expected numbers put that gap at 1.83. Results and process agree to within three hundredths of a run.
Neither starter has been flattered: Singer's ERA sits 0.05 under his xERA, Mahle's 0.08 under his. There is nothing here to argue with, which is worth printing.
Against it Singer's 10.1% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit are the contact profile of a pitcher who can lose five runs in an inning; the 64% may yet prove too low.
| Starter | IP | ERA | xERA | ERA − xERA | K% | BB% | Barrel% | Hard-hit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady SingerCIN · RHP | 154.0 | 5.67 | 5.72 | −0.05 | 17.7 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 43.0 |
| Tyler MahleATL · RHP | 144.0 | 3.81 | 3.89 | −0.08 | 22.5 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 37.4 |
Atlanta arrive 0-2, Green Bay 1-1, and the consensus number is Packers by four and a half with a total of 43.5 — Covers and the Kalshi market agree on both.
One book is out of line with the rest: SportsbookReview shows BetRivers at Green Bay −6.5 against −4.5 at BetMGM and Caesars. Two points of spread between books on a nationally televised game is either the best number on the board or a bad scrape, and nothing tonight corroborated it.
Against it ELWAY's team ratings live in interactive charts that do not render to a fetch, and Pro Football Reference returned 403. Without a rating there is no model number to set against the line, so this card states the market and stops there.
| Records | Atlanta 0-2 · Green Bay 1-1 |
| Spread | GB −4.5 (Covers, Kalshi) · −4.5 to −6.5 across books at SBR |
| Total | 43.5 |
| Market | Kalshi implies Green Bay 69% |
| Atlanta out | Samson Ebukam (hamstring) did not practise |
| Green Bay out | Jayden Reed (neck), Aaron Banks (toe), Warren Brinson (calf), Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) |