The Daily Lob

Grant Holmes takes a 3.47 ERA into this game and an expected ERA of 4.91 — the largest gap between results and contact on either board tonight, across a full season's 147.2 innings.

Pérez sits at 4.14 against a 4.20 xERA, which is to say his season is roughly what it looks like. On results Atlanta's starter is 0.67 runs better; on expected ERA Miami's is better by 0.71. That is a 1.38-run swing, and Atlanta is still favoured.

Against it  Holmes has held that gap all year, and a pitcher can outrun his contact for a full season without the market being wrong to price the outcome rather than the process. Pérez also walks 10.6% of hitters, which is its own way to lose a game.

Expected ERAs of 4.23 and 4.11 either side, and a market that has made it a coin flip. Nothing to take.

The one number worth a look is Chandler's 11.6% walk rate against Jobe's 8.1%. If this game goes wrong for Pittsburgh early, that is the mechanism.

Against it  Jobe's 40.2 innings are a third of Chandler's workload, so his expected line is the less settled of the two and his 10.0% barrel rate is the higher.

Pfaadt owns the better ERA by 0.24 runs; Mize owns the better expected ERA by 0.13. The swing is a third of a run and it runs towards the side the market already favours.

Pfaadt's 16.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of the six starters on this page, and he gets away with it on a 35.0% hard-hit rate.

Against it  Mize's last time out was three innings, five earned and five walks. One start is not a trend, but it is the kind that empties a bullpen.

The market makes the Rams road favourites by two and a half. ELWAY's injury-adjusted ratings make Denver a 3.45-point home favourite. A 5.95-point disagreement is the widest on the Sunday board by more than two points.

It is entirely about health. On performance alone the Rams rate +5.2 against Denver's +2.7, which would make this LAR by three quarters of a point — near enough to the market. The injury adjustment takes 3.1 points off Los Angeles and adds 1.1 to Denver, and the whole edge lives in that gap.

Against it  This is a bet on the injury adjustment being right and the market being slow, not on the teams. If the Rams' absentees return or were priced in already, there is nothing here. Confirm the inactives before kickoff.

Kansas City rate +4.5 and Miami −4.4, a gap of 8.9 points, which home field trims to 7.15. The market is asking for ten and a half.

Double-digit NFL spreads need a rating gap the ratings do not show here. Three and a third points of disagreement, all of it on the Miami side.

Against it  Miami is not in the performance table supplied, so this rests on the injury-adjusted number alone with no second view to check it. Willis at 78.9 QBERT is also the kind of quarterback a market prices below the model.

Minnesota are road favourites by a point and a half. Injury-adjusted ELWAY makes Tampa a 0.95-point home favourite, and the performance table makes it 1.55 — a gap of between two and a half and three points depending which you trust.

The two tables agreeing matters more than the size here: this is not an artefact of one injury estimate.

Against it  Two to three points on a near-pick'em game is the smallest edge carded today, and Murray at 76.4 QBERT against Mayfield at 80.5 is the sort of gap that shows up in the market before it shows up in a rating.