Build 2026-09-20 00:40 UTC · the injury gate is open. 8 cards from the fifteen
Week 2 games that have not kicked off; 7 named below with the reason.
Plus a short baseball strip. Nothing here is scored yet — the cross-sport scorecard is
still being built.
Friday's edition greyed out every injury note, because a Friday-morning
build had only Wednesday's practice. The full Wednesday/Thursday/Friday trends and the final
designations are now in, and the column is live. Three starting quarterbacks were ruled out
during the week. The lines barely moved — and the most interesting thing on this page is why.
What the designations changed
One model read Friday's injury report and the other did not, and the
filter caught it. Kyler Murray was ruled out with a concussion. nfelo responded — its
Minnesota quarterback adjustment moved from +19 to −33 and the team's spread value
from +0.3 to −1.5. The ELWAY table, pasted on Thursday, still prices Minnesota through
Murray. So the two models now sit on opposite sides of Vikings–Bears, which was card
02 on Friday and is off the board tonight. The disagreement is not about football. It is
about which model has newer information.
Carolina at Atlanta comes back on, and goes straight to the top. It
was excluded on Friday because no two sources agreed who was favoured. Three now say Carolina.
Atlanta will start Cooper Rush: Penix practised full on all three days and was ruled out
anyway, Tagovailoa did not practise at all and is doubtful. ELWAY still rates Atlanta on
Tagovailoa, which is exactly why the biggest edge on the board carries the loudest warning.
Washington at Dallas was excluded on Friday and is carded now — not
because anything changed about the teams, but because the line moved to four and a half and the
two models stopped straddling it.
Three quarterbacks out, and the lines did not move
Murray, Penix and Sam Darnold were all ruled out. Tagovailoa is doubtful.
Burrow is questionable. Against the Wednesday-night numbers, fourteen of the fifteen lines
are exactly where they opened; the only move on the board is half a point on
Eagles–Titans.
That is not the market being asleep. It is the market having priced all of it
before Wednesday night — Murray's status was reported as doubtful on Wednesday with
Wentz in line to start, and Atlanta's quarterback room was public days earlier. By the time
the official report is final, the information in it is old. Which is the honest answer to
whether this page can be early on an injury: on this slate, it could not have been, and saying
so is worth more than pretending otherwise.
The one place the reports genuinely added something is the shape of a
week. Three players were limited in all three practices and ruled out anyway — Greenard,
Madubuike, Porter. One, Michael Pittman, went limited and then did not practise twice and was
ruled out. Limited participation is not evidence a player will play, and a page that
treated "limited" as encouraging would have had it backwards three times this week.
The noise filter, settled
On Wednesday San Francisco listed McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams and
Greenlaw as absent. Friday's edition printed all four at half opacity marked not injury
related and refused to argue from them. All four practised full on Thursday and Friday
and none carries a designation. San Francisco's only absence is a rookie receiver.
They still print greyed here, and so do Khalil Mack, Calais Campbell, Darren
Waller and Aidan O'Connell. The filter cost nothing and it was right.
8 games · largest conservative edge first
01Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsSun 1:00 PM ET
Carolina Panthers
ELWAY -6.0 · nfelo -3.8 (QB +12) · Young 80.8
at
Atlanta Falcons
ELWAY -1.6 · nfelo -5.1 (QB -20) · Tagovailoa 79.2
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
CAR -2.5+2.5
ELWAYATL -6.1-8.6
nfeloATL -0.4-2.9
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Atlanta Falcons
2.9pts
models -6.1 to -0.4market 2.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -6.0 / -1.6 |
| nfelo spread value | -3.8 / -5.1 |
| models apart | 5.7 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | CAR -2.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | CAR -2.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Carolina Panthers — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPBobby Brown III DT · backOut
DNPLPLPPatrick Jones II OLB · backQuestionable
DNPFPFPDarren Waller TE · rest — not injury related
LPFPFPJalen Coker WR · ankle
Atlanta Falcons — W / T / F
FPFPFPMichael Penix Jr. QB · kneeOutfull participation all three days and ruled out anyway
DNPDNPDNPTua Tagovailoa QB · obliqueDoubtfulELWAY's listed QB1 for Atlanta
FPFPFPCooper Rush QB · nonethe only healthy quarterback on the roster
DNPDNPDNPA.J. Terrell CB · shoulderQuestionable
DNPFPFPChris Lindstrom G · concussionQuestionable
FPFPFPBilly Bowman Jr. CB · AchillesOut
The angleAtlanta will start its third-choice quarterback and both models still rate it on the first two. Penix practised full on all three days and was ruled out anyway; Tagovailoa did not practise at all and is doubtful; Cooper Rush is the only healthy arm on the roster. ELWAY's Atlanta number is built on Tagovailoa. This is the largest edge on the board and the one most likely to be an artefact of a stale rating rather than a real disagreement — the two models are 5.7 points apart on this game, the widest gap of any card. Excluded on Friday because no two sources agreed who was favoured; three now say Carolina.
02Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersSun 4:25 PM ET
Miami Dolphins
ELWAY -3.2 · nfelo -7.6 (QB -11) · Willis 78.1
at
San Francisco 49ers
ELWAY +2.7 · nfelo +1.9 (QB +7) · Purdy 93.6
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
SF -13.5-13.5
ELWAYSF -7.6+5.9
nfeloSF -11.2+2.3
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Miami Dolphins
2.3pts
models 7.6 to 11.2market 13.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -3.2 / +2.7 |
| nfelo spread value | -7.6 / +1.9 |
| models apart | 3.6 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | SF -13.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | SF -13.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Miami Dolphins — W / T / F
LPDNPDNPChop Robinson EDGE · concussionOut
DNPDNPDNPRonnie Harrison ILB · hamstringOut
LPLPLPTucker Addington LS · shoulderQuestionable
FPFPFPMalik Willis QB · toeELWAY's QB1 for Miami — cleared, no designation
San Francisco 49ers — W / T / F
DNPFPFPChristian McCaffrey RB · rest — not injury related
DNPFPFPNick Bosa DL · rest — not injury related
DNPFPFPTrent Williams T · rest — not injury related
DNPFPFPDre Greenlaw LB · rest — not injury related
LPLPFPGeorge Kittle TE · Achillesprogressed to full by Friday, no designation
DNPDNPDNPDe'Zhaun Stribling WR · ankleOut
DNPDNPDNPEddy Pineiro K · illnessQuestionable
The angleThe rest days resolved exactly as the noise filter said they would. McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams and Greenlaw all sat Wednesday, all practised full Thursday and Friday, and none of them carries a designation. Kittle went limited, limited, full. San Francisco's only absence is a rookie receiver. A page that had called this a depleted favourite on Wednesday would have been wrong by Friday — which is the entire reason the gate exists. The line has not moved a half-point since Wednesday.
03Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansSun 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles
ELWAY +1.8 · nfelo +1.8 (QB +4) · Hurts 84.7
at
Tennessee Titans
ELWAY -5.0 · nfelo -6.2 (QB -3) · Ward 72.7
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market 0.5 pt apart
PHI -7.5+7.5
ELWAYPHI -5.1-2.4
nfeloPHI -6.3-1.2
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Tennessee Titans
1.2pts
models 5.1 to 6.3market 7.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | +1.8 / -5.0 |
| nfelo spread value | +1.8 / -6.2 |
| models apart | 1.2 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | PHI -7.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | PHI -7.0 |
| since Wednesday | 0.5 pt toward PHI |
Philadelphia Eagles — W / T / F
LPLPLPJonathan Greenard OLB · pectoralOutlimited all three days and ruled out anyway
LPLPLPAndrew Mukuba S · kneeQuestionable
DNPLPLPJalen Carter DT · wrist
DNPFPFPCooper DeJean CB · calf
Tennessee Titans — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPCordale Flott CB · quadricepsQuestionable
FPFPFPCedric Gray LB · concussionQuestionable
LPLPLPJames Williams LB · elbowQuestionable
The angleThe only line on the board that moved at all — half a point toward Philadelphia since Wednesday — and the models sit under the number on both readings. Greenard was limited all three days and ruled out regardless, which is the pattern worth noticing: limited participation is not evidence a player will suit up. Tennessee carries three questionables and none of them is a starter of consequence.
04New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSun 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints
ELWAY -3.7 · nfelo -3.5 (QB +6) · Shough 78.7
at
Baltimore Ravens
ELWAY +4.1 · nfelo +4.2 (QB +15) · Jackson 94.5
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
BAL -8.5-8.5
ELWAYBAL -9.5-1.0
nfeloBAL -9.4-0.9
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Baltimore Ravens
0.9pts
models 9.4 to 9.5market 8.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -3.7 / +4.1 |
| nfelo spread value | -3.5 / +4.2 |
| models apart | 0.1 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | BAL -8.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | BAL -8.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
New Orleans Saints — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPZach Wood LS · calfOut
DNPDNPDNPIsaiah Stalbird LB · shoulderDoubtful
LPLPLPChris Olave WR · hamstringQuestionable
DNPLPLPChase Young EDGE · calfQuestionable
LPLPLPChristen Miller DT · toeQuestionable
Baltimore Ravens — W / T / F
DNPDNPLPZay Flowers WR · hamstringDoubtful
LPLPLPNnamdi Madubuike DT · neckOutlimited all week and still ruled out
DNPDNPDNPT.J. Tampa CB · kneeOut
LPLPLPTeddye Buchanan LB · kneeOut
DNPLPLPTrey Hendrickson OLB · fingerQuestionable
DNPLPLPRonnie Stanley T · toeQuestionable
DNPLPLPJohn Simpson G · groinQuestionable
DNPFPFPCalais Campbell DT · rest — not injury related
The angleThe most interesting injury column on the page, attached to the smallest disagreement. Baltimore has four players out and three more questionable, including both starting tackles-and-guard rotation pieces, Hendrickson on a finger and Flowers doubtful after finally practising limited on Friday. Madubuike was limited all three days and ruled out anyway. The two models are a tenth of a point apart from each other and both sit just past the market. All that injury news, and no edge.
05Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersSun 4:05 PM ET
Las Vegas Raiders
ELWAY -2.3 · nfelo -4.1 (QB +18) · Cousins 76.0
at
Los Angeles Chargers
ELWAY +0.6 · nfelo -0.2 (QB -3) · Herbert 81.4
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
LAC -6.5-6.5
ELWAYLAC -4.6+1.9
nfeloLAC -5.6+0.9
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Las Vegas Raiders
0.9pts
models 4.6 to 5.6market 6.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -2.3 / +0.6 |
| nfelo spread value | -4.1 / -0.2 |
| models apart | 1.0 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | LAC -6.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | LAC -6.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Las Vegas Raiders — W / T / F
DNPDNPLPBrock Bowers TE · kneeDoubtfulmeniscus procedure; practised limited Friday only
DNPDNPDNPDarien Porter CB · footOut
DNPDNPDNPAidan O'Connell QB · personalQuestionable — not injury related
FPFPFPAshton Jeanty RB · ankle
Los Angeles Chargers — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPTrey Pipkins T · kneeOut
DNPDNPDNPElijah Molden DB · hamstringOut
DNPLPLPLadd McConkey WR · ribQuestionable
LPLPLPDeane Leonard CB · abdomenQuestionable
DNPFPFPKhalil Mack DE · rest — not injury related
DNPFPFPTeair Tart DL · ankle
The angleBowers is doubtful on a meniscus procedure having practised only on Friday, and the Chargers lose their starting right tackle and a starting safety outright, with McConkey questionable on a rib. Both sides are damaged and the line has not moved a point since Wednesday, which is the market saying it considers the two sets of absences a wash. The models both sit under the number.
06Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosSun 4:05 PM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars
ELWAY +3.4 · nfelo +1.4 (QB +13) · Lawrence 91.0
at
Denver Broncos
ELWAY +3.3 · nfelo +0.2 (QB -7) · Nix 83.4
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
DEN -2.5-2.5
ELWAYDEN -1.6+0.9
nfeloDEN -0.5+2.0
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Jacksonville Jaguars
0.9pts
models 0.5 to 1.6market 2.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | +3.4 / +3.3 |
| nfelo spread value | +1.4 / +0.2 |
| models apart | 1.1 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | DEN -2.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | DEN -2.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Jacksonville Jaguars — W / T / F
LPLPLPBrian Thomas Jr. WR · shoulder
LPLPLPJakobi Meyers WR · thumb
LPFPFPFoye Oluokun LB · wrist
LPFPFPCole Van Lanen OL · knee
Denver Broncos — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPMarvin Mims Jr. WR · footOut
DNPLPLPRJ Harvey RB · hamstringQuestionable
FPFPFPTroy Franklin WR · knee
The angleJacksonville has no designations at all — every player on its report practised limited or full across all three days and none was given a status. That is the cleanest injury column of the fifteen games. Denver loses a returner and has a running back questionable. Untouched since it opened, identical at both sources.
07Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysSun 4:25 PM ET
Washington Commanders
ELWAY -2.3 · nfelo -1.7 (QB +4) · Daniels 82.5
at
Dallas Cowboys
ELWAY -1.6 · nfelo +0.2 (QB +4) · Prescott 89.3
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
DAL -4.5-4.5
ELWAYDAL -2.4+2.1
nfeloDAL -3.6+0.9
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Washington Commanders
0.9pts
models 2.4 to 3.6market 4.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -2.3 / -1.6 |
| nfelo spread value | -1.7 / +0.2 |
| models apart | 1.2 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | DAL -4.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | DAL -4.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Washington Commanders — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPFrankie Luvu LB · groinOut
DNPDNPDNPChig Okonkwo TE · hamstringOut
LPLPLPJavon Kinlaw DT · backQuestionable
Dallas Cowboys — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPDeMarvion Overshown LB · hamstringOut
DNPDNPDNPMalik Hooker S · forearmOut
The angleThis game was excluded on Friday and is carded now, and the injuries are why. On Friday's number the two models straddled the market by about a point each way. At four and a half they agree. Washington loses Luvu and Okonkwo outright, Dallas loses Overshown and Hooker — four starters between them, all of whom sat every day of the week, none of it news by Friday.
08Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSun 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers
ELWAY -1.3 · nfelo -0.8 (QB +9) · Rodgers 74.6
at
New England Patriots
ELWAY +1.9 · nfelo +2.3 (QB -3) · Maye 88.5
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market both sources agree
NE -5.5-5.5
ELWAYNE -4.9+0.6
nfeloNE -4.8+0.7
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Pittsburgh Steelers
0.6pts
models 4.8 to 4.9market 5.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -1.3 / +1.9 |
| nfelo spread value | -0.8 / +2.3 |
| models apart | 0.1 pts |
| market |
| covers, Sat 10:19am | NE -5.5 |
| FOX, Wed 11:55pm | NE -5.5 |
| since Wednesday | unmoved since Wednesday |
Pittsburgh Steelers — W / T / F
LPDNPDNPMichael Pittman WR · footOutwent the wrong way across the week
LPLPLPJoey Porter Jr. CB · back / conditioningOut
DNPLPFPTroy Fautanu OT · ankleQuestionablethe one trend on this card that improved
New England Patriots — W / T / F
DNPDNPDNPCarlton Davis III CB · neckOut
DNPDNPDNPDametrious Crownover T · kneeOut
LPLPLPBen Brown C · kneeQuestionable
LPLPLPDre'Mont Jones LB · footQuestionable
The angleHas not moved a half-point since it opened and both models sit inside a point of the number. Pittsburgh loses Pittman, whose week went limited then did-not-practise twice — the only carded player whose trend deteriorated across the week — and Porter to a back. Fautanu went the other way, DNP to limited to full, and is questionable.
Also on the board · baseball · 2 games
The cross-sport board starts here — a strip rather than
cards, on the same metric the 16 September baseball edition used. Misprice is the gap
between the starter advantage implied by ERA and the one implied by expected stats, in runs over
five innings. The same innings gate applies: a hundred innings is a full sample, forty is the
floor, and under forty makes a game unrankable no matter how big the number looks.
Baltimore at MilwaukeeMilwaukee under-priced by the ERA read 0.34 runs
| Brandon Young 145.2 IP | 3.65 ERA / 4.42 xERA |
| Jacob Misiorowski 161.1 IP | 1.95 ERA / 2.10 xERA |
Brandon Young has a 3.65 ERA and a 4.42 xERA across 145⅔ innings — the largest well-sampled gap on the slate, and it runs the wrong way for Baltimore. Misiorowski's 1.95 is very nearly honest at 2.10. So the distance between these two starters is wider than the scoreboard says, not narrower, and Milwaukee is already the side the market likes.
Miami at San DiegoSan Diego under-priced by the ERA read 0.32 runs
| Sandy Alcantara 200.0 IP | 3.78 ERA / 3.91 xERA |
| Walker Buehler 143.1 IP | 4.61 ERA / 4.17 xERA |
Two full seasons of innings on both sides and almost nothing between the readings. Alcantara's ERA and xERA agree to within a tenth and a half over 200 innings; Buehler has been punished by about four-tenths more than his contact deserved. It is on the strip as the control — this is what two honestly-priced starters look like.
NYM @ PHIgated — Jonah Tong, 15.0 IP
This produced the largest misprice of the day at 0.88 runs and it is not on the strip. Jonah Tong has one start and fifteen innings on the year; his 4.80 ERA against a 3.69 xERA sits on a handful of batted balls. It is the same shape as the Washington starter who topped the board on 16 September with four innings, and the same 40-inning floor removes it. The genuinely interesting number in that game is on the other side — Cristopher Sánchez, 2.93 ERA against a 3.40 xERA over 193⅔ innings — but a gate that only applies when it is convenient is not a gate.
Below the cut, and off the board
The page caps at eight cards. One game passed the consensus filter and missed
the cut; it is named first rather than hidden by the cap. The rest are games where the two
models take opposite sides of the market, which is the rule that removed nearly half the slate.
| CLE @ TB | Sun 1:00 | edge 0.3 pts — below the cut | Passes the consensus filter on the smallest edge of the week. Cleveland loses a starting guard and has both nickel corners questionable; Tampa Bay's three questionables all practised full by Friday. |
| MIN @ CHI | Sun 1:00 | models now take opposite sides | This was card 02 on Friday and the filter has since taken it off the board — because one model updated and the other did not. Kyler Murray was ruled out with a concussion. nfelo responded: its Minnesota quarterback adjustment went from +19 to −33 and the team's spread value from +0.3 to −1.5. ELWAY, pasted on Thursday, still prices Minnesota through Murray. So ELWAY now likes Minnesota by three points and nfelo likes Chicago by one, and the disagreement between them is not about football — it is about which of them has read Friday's injury report. |
| SEA @ ARI | Sun 4:25 | models take opposite sides | Still 7.5 points apart, and the quarterback news cuts the same way it did on Friday. Sam Darnold is out, and ELWAY was already pricing Seattle through Lock at 68.4 QBERT, the lowest of any listed starter — so ELWAY is arguably the model that has this right, while nfelo moved Seattle up this week to fourth in the league. Two credible models, opposite conclusions, on a game whose starting quarterback changed. |
| NYG @ LAR | Mon 8:15 | models take opposite sides | The largest model disagreement of the week at 8.2 points, unchanged in character from Friday. ELWAY has the Rams 24th, nfelo has them 3rd. Puka Nacua is questionable on a hip having not practised all week, which would matter if there were anything rankable underneath it. |
| CIN @ HOU | Sun 1:00 | models take opposite sides | Joe Burrow is questionable with a back injury after practising full on all three days, and Houston loses Nico Collins, Clowney and a starting guard outright. Plenty of news, and the two models straddle the number by under a point each way. |
| GB @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 | models take opposite sides | The Jets lose four players including Minkah Fitzpatrick; Green Bay loses two defensive tackles with Hargrave doubtful. The models straddle the line. |
| IND @ KC | Mon 8:20 | models take opposite sides | Both models within half a point of the market and on opposite sides of it. |
| DET @ BUF | Thu | already played | Thursday night. The page only cards games that have not started. |
What is still missing, and one thing that nearly went wrong
A correction, caught before it reached a card. A search result tonight
carried the headline "49ers rule out Brock Purdy", which would have gutted the second card on
the page — ELWAY rates San Francisco through Purdy at 93.6 QBERT. It was a story from a
previous season. Purdy is not on this week's report at all, and the official report is what
the page used. A headline is not a source.
The market numbers are timestamped, and one source was dropped for not
being. Prices here are covers.com's Week 2 page at 10:19am Saturday, cross-checked against
FOX Sports at 11:55pm Wednesday, which also serves as the opener. A third read — covers' own
live board — returned Friday-identical numbers on a Saturday-night fetch, so it is treated as
unverified for currency and is not used for any number on this page.
Home-field advantage is still 1.7 points and still not fitted. It moves
every game equally, so it cannot reorder the board, but it can flip a coin-flip.
Still no scorecard. Eight cards here, six baseball cards from Tuesday,
and nothing has a result attached to it. The cross-sport scorer is the next thing built, and
until it exists this page claims no record because it has none.
The archives are untouched
Friday's NFL edition, the baseball edition and all 22 tennis editions are live
and unchanged in the archive. PoolMethods still
describes only the tennis method and now owes two sections.
Built 2026-09-20 00:40 UTC. Football sources: ELWAY team ratings via Silver Bulletin, transcribed and
integrity-checked; nfelo power ratings re-read 19 September (nfeloapp.com, free); injury reports
from NFL.com's official Week 2 report and Sharp Football Analysis, full Wednesday/Thursday/Friday
participation with final designations; spreads from covers.com timestamped 19 September 10:19am ET
and FOX Sports timestamped 17 September 11:55pm ET, direction cross-checked on every game.
Home-field advantage 1.7 points, unfitted and stated. Baseball sources: Baseball Savant player
pages, 2026 season row, read 19 September; probable starters from FanGraphs RosterResource, which
was the only probables source serving Sunday's slate — Baseball Savant's probable-pitchers
page was still showing Saturday, and Baseball-Reference's previews index served a page dated
14 June and is not used.