Five games where the ratings and the spread disagree, widest first. Worth noting before any of them: the week's line movement has gone the model's way in three of the top four, which is either confirmation or a warning that the edge is already being taken.
Read this morning from Dr David Chao (@ProFootballDoc), Dr Evan Jeffries (@GameInjuryDoc), Sports Injury Central (@SICscore), Dr Brian Sutterer (@BrianSuttererMD) and Dr Riley Williams (@rileywilliamsMD). The last two posted nothing about the NFL, which is stated rather than padded around.
| Nacua, LAR · hip | Doubtful. Has not practised all week · Sports Injury Central |
| Coleman, DEN · ankle | High ankle sprain, to short-term injured reserve, back late October · Schefter, carried by Jeffries |
| Daniels, WAS · elbow | Surgery deferred to the off-season; braces it and returns “in the coming weeks”, so not today · Pelissero, confirmed by Chao |
| Bowers, LV · knee | Questionable, meniscus, downgraded during the week · Sports Injury Central |
| Nothing to report | Sutterer and Williams posted nothing NFL-related in the last 24 hours. |
The market makes the Rams road favourites by a point and a half; ELWAY's injury-adjusted ratings make Denver a 3.45-point home favourite. At 4.95 points this is the widest disagreement on the board by two and a half.
The injury desk supplies the mechanism the ratings only imply: Nacua is doubtful with a hip and has not practised all week. The Rams rate +5.2 on performance and +2.1 once health is priced, and that 3.1-point haircut is what the market is still arguing with.
Against it The line has already come a point towards Denver this week, so some of this is being taken. Denver also lost a running back to short-term injured reserve yesterday, which Thursday's ratings cannot know. Doubtful is not out — check the inactives.
| Line | Opened LAR −2.5 · now LAR −1.5 · 1 point towards Denver |
| ELWAY, injury-adj | DEN −3.45 · 4.95-point gap, on Denver |
| ELWAY, performance | DEN −0.75 · 2.25-point gap, same direction |
| Los Angeles | +2.1 injury-adjusted against +5.2 on performance · Stafford, QBERT 87.7 · Nacua doubtful |
| Denver | +3.8 injury-adjusted against +2.7 on performance · Nix, QBERT 84.6 · defence 3rd · Coleman to IR |
Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point road favourite and is down to 1.5. ELWAY makes Tampa Bay a 0.95-point home favourite injury-adjusted and a 1.55-point one on performance.
Two independent readings of the ratings agreeing matters more than the 2.45-point gap itself. Nothing in this morning's injury feeds touches this game.
Against it The move has already eaten a point of the disagreement. Murray at 76.4 QBERT against Mayfield at 80.5 is also the sort of quarterback gap a market prices before a rating catches up.
| Line | Opened MIN −2.5 · now MIN −1.5 · 1 point towards Tampa |
| ELWAY, injury-adj | TB −0.95 · 2.45-point gap, on Tampa |
| ELWAY, performance | TB −1.55 · 3.05-point gap, same direction |
| Minnesota | +0.5 · offence 20th · Murray, QBERT 76.4 |
| Tampa Bay | −0.3 · defence 16th · Mayfield, QBERT 80.5 |
Las Vegas rate −1.6 and New Orleans −2.3, so the home field is doing all the work: ELWAY makes this New Orleans by one, and the market has moved out to three and a half.
This is the only card where the week's movement runs against the model rather than towards it, which is the part worth respecting.
Against it Bowers is questionable with a meniscus issue for the Raiders, which the ratings supplied on Thursday do not include and which argues the market is right to have moved. Neither team appears in the performance table, so there is no second view.
| Line | Opened NO −3 · now NO −3.5 · half a point away from Vegas |
| ELWAY, injury-adj | NO −1.05 · 2.45-point gap, on Las Vegas |
| ELWAY, performance | not available — neither team is in the performance table |
| Las Vegas | −1.6 · Cousins, QBERT 79.5 · Bowers questionable |
| New Orleans | −2.3 · Shough, QBERT 78.6 |
Kansas City rate +4.5 and Miami −4.4; the 8.9-point gap becomes 7.15 once Miami get home field. This opened at Kansas City by ten and a half and has come down to nine and a half.
The move takes a point out of the disagreement and leaves 2.35. Double-digit spreads need a rating gap these ratings still do not show.
Against it Miami is absent from the performance table, so the injury-adjusted number stands alone. Sports Injury Central's own model has Achane under 60.5 rushing yards, which is a vote against Miami keeping this within the number.
| Line | Opened KC −10.5 · now KC −9.5 · 1 point towards Miami |
| ELWAY, injury-adj | KC −7.15 · 2.35-point gap, on Miami |
| ELWAY, performance | not available — Miami absent from the performance table |
| Kansas City | +4.5 · offence 4th · Mahomes, QBERT 88.0 |
| Miami | −4.4 · defence 31st · Willis, QBERT 78.9 · SIC model: Achane under 60.5 rushing |
Two days ago Seattle were −6 and the ratings wanted −7.35, so the model was on Seattle. The line has since moved two and a half points to −8.5, which puts it past the rating and leaves the small edge on Washington.
ELWAY already lists Mariota rather than Daniels as Washington's quarterback, and the injury desk confirms that is right, so the move is not the market learning something the rating has missed. It is the market going further than the rating on the same information.
Against it A 1.15-point gap is inside the error of any rating, and taking a side because a line moved too far is the thinnest reason on this page. Carded because the direction flipped mid-week, which is worth recording.
| Line | Opened SEA −6 · now SEA −8.5 · 2.5 points towards Seattle, the biggest move on the board |
| ELWAY, injury-adj | SEA −7.35 · 1.15-point gap, now on Washington |
| Seattle | +5.2 · defence 1st · Darnold, QBERT 83.2 |
| Washington | −3.9 · offence 28th · Mariota, QBERT 80.1 · Daniels out, elbow |