First football edition · build 2026-09-18 03:20 UTC. 8 cards from the fifteen
Week 2 games that have not started; the other 7 are excluded with the reason printed.
Nothing here is scored yet — the cross-sport scorecard is still being built, and until it
exists these numbers carry no record.
Cards rank by the conservative edge — two independent public models are
set against the market spread, and the card is worth only as much as the model that likes it least.
Where the two models take opposite sides, there is no card at all. That rule removes seven of
the fifteen games, including the two where the models sit more than seven points apart from each
other. Nothing on this page is a recommendation; there is no scorecard behind it yet.
Why two models, and why the smaller number
The plan was to rank by one model's disagreement with the market, the way the
tennis page ranked by Elo against Vegas. Running two of them against a live board killed that
idea in one pass. ELWAY has the Rams 24th in the league; nfelo has them 3rd. On Giants at
Rams the two are 8.7 points apart and land on opposite sides of the number. On Seattle at
Arizona they are 7.5 apart, also opposite.
Across the fifteen games the median distance between the two models is 1.4
points, which is fine, and the tail is enormous. A page ranking on either one alone would have
printed a confident card in the wrong direction — Seattle at Arizona was the top card on the
draft board until the second model was added, and the second model puts the value on Arizona.
So: a game is carded only when both models take the same side, and it ranks by
the smaller of the two edges. The spread of opinion between the models is printed on every
card, because a two-point edge with the models half a point apart is not the same object as a
two-point edge with the models four points apart.
The injury column is greyed out tonight, on purpose
The gate agreed before this was built: an injury note carries an argument only
if it names a player with a real role, carries the full Wednesday/Thursday/Friday practice
trend, and states the line movement since the opener. A Friday-morning build has only
Wednesday's practice report — Thursday and Friday are not out. So every injury note on
this page prints greyed, with the participation shown and no argument attached to it.
That is the gate working rather than a bad night, and it is an argument for
building this daily: the same page rebuilt on Saturday morning has the full trend and the final
designations, and the notes earn their weight.
The noise filter is already doing visible work. San Francisco listed six
players on Wednesday and four of them are rest days — McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams and
Greenlaw all sat with nothing wrong. They print at half opacity, marked not injury related,
and they are dropped from anything the page argues. A report read naively would have called the
biggest favourite of the week a depleted team.
8 games · largest conservative edge first
01Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersSun 4:25 PM ET
Miami Dolphins
ELWAY -3.2 · nfelo -7.8 · QB Willis (78.1)
at
San Francisco 49ers
ELWAY +2.7 · nfelo +1.7 · QB Purdy (93.6)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market two books agree
SF -13.5-13.5
ELWAYSF -7.6+5.9
nfeloSF -11.2+2.3
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Miami Dolphins
2.3pts
models 7.6 to 11.2market 13.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -3.2 / +2.7 |
| nfelo spread value | -7.8 / +1.7 |
| models apart | 3.6 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | SF -13.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | SF -13.5 |
| books apart | 0.0 pts |
| since opening | 1.0 pt toward SF |
Miami Dolphins — Wednesday practice
LPChop Robinson EDGE · concussion
FPMalik Willis QB · toeELWAY's listed QB1 for Miami
DNPRonnie Harrison ILB · hamstring
FPDante Trader Jr. S · hamstring
San Francisco 49ers — Wednesday practice
DNPChristian McCaffrey RB · rest — rest day
DNPNick Bosa DL · rest / knee — rest day
DNPTrent Williams T · rest — rest day
DNPDre Greenlaw LB · rest / Achilles — rest day
LPGeorge Kittle TE · Achilles
DNPDe'Zhaun Stribling WR · ankle
The angleThe biggest raw disagreement on the board and the card the injury filter exists to demote. Both models make San Francisco somewhere between seven and eleven points better than Miami; the market says thirteen and a half, and it has moved a point further that way since opening. Four of the six San Francisco names on the practice report are rest days, not injuries — McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams and Greenlaw all sat Wednesday with nothing wrong. A page that read the report naively would call this a depleted favourite. It is not. What is left is Kittle managing an Achilles.
02Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsSun 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings
ELWAY +0.6 · nfelo +0.3 · QB Murray (76.5)
at
Chicago Bears
ELWAY +0.4 · nfelo +2.0 · QB Williams (84.4)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market 1.0 pts apart
CHI -5.0-5.0
ELWAYCHI -1.5+3.5
nfeloCHI -3.4+1.6
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Minnesota Vikings
1.6pts
models 1.5 to 3.4market 5.0
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | +0.6 / +0.4 |
| nfelo spread value | +0.3 / +2.0 |
| models apart | 1.9 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | CHI -5.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | CHI -4.5 |
| books apart | 1.0 pts |
| since opening | 0.5 pt toward MIN |
Minnesota Vikings — Wednesday practice
LPKyler Murray QB · undisclosedELWAY's listed QB1 for Minnesota. Carson Wentz reported in line to start.
DNPJauan Jennings WR · undisclosed
LPBrian O'Neill T · undisclosed
LPAndrew Van Ginkel LB · undisclosed
LPBlake Cashman LB · undisclosed
Chicago Bears — Wednesday practice
DNPDarnell Wright OL · knee
DNPNeville Gallimore DL · illness
DNPGrady Jarrett DL · rest — rest day
LPD'Andre Swift RB · ankle / knee
LPOzzy Trapilo OL · knee
The angleBoth models make Chicago a field-goal favourite at most; the market has been between four and a half and five and a half all week. The complication is at quarterback and it is not small. ELWAY's Minnesota rating is built on Kyler Murray, who practised limited on Wednesday with Carson Wentz reported in line to start. That is the exact staleness this page was designed to flag: the rating contains a quarterback who may not play, so the edge it shows toward Minnesota is partly an artefact of the model, not of the price.
03Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersSun 4:05 PM ET
Las Vegas Raiders
ELWAY -2.3 · nfelo -4.3 · QB Cousins (76.0)
at
Los Angeles Chargers
ELWAY +0.6 · nfelo -0.4 · QB Herbert (81.4)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market two books agree
LAC -6.5-6.5
ELWAYLAC -4.6+1.9
nfeloLAC -5.6+0.9
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Las Vegas Raiders
0.9pts
models 4.6 to 5.6market 6.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -2.3 / +0.6 |
| nfelo spread value | -4.3 / -0.4 |
| models apart | 1.0 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | LAC -6.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | LAC -6.5 |
| books apart | 0.0 pts |
| since opening | 0.5 pt toward LV |
Las Vegas Raiders — Wednesday practice
DNPBrock Bowers TE · kneemeniscus procedure; reported to cost him a game or two
DNPDarien Porter CB · foot
FPAshton Jeanty RB · ankle
Los Angeles Chargers — Wednesday practice
DNPLadd McConkey WR · rib
DNPTrey Pipkins T · knee
DNPTeair Tart DL · ankle
DNPElijah Molden DB · hamstring
DNPKhalil Mack OLB · rest — rest day
LPDalvin Tomlinson DL · hamstring
The angleBoth books agree exactly, the line has come in half a point from the opener, and both models think it should come in further. The Chargers' Wednesday list is the longer one — McConkey, Pipkins, Tart and Molden all out of practice, with Mack resting — against a Raiders report of three names. On a Saturday build this is the card where the practice trend would matter most.
04Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosSun 4:05 PM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars
ELWAY +3.4 · nfelo +1.2 · QB Lawrence (91.0)
at
Denver Broncos
ELWAY +3.3 · nfelo +0.0 · QB Nix (83.4)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market two books agree
DEN -2.5-2.5
ELWAYDEN -1.6+0.9
nfeloDEN -0.5+2.0
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Jacksonville Jaguars
0.9pts
models 0.5 to 1.6market 2.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | +3.4 / +3.3 |
| nfelo spread value | +1.2 / +0.0 |
| models apart | 1.1 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | DEN -2.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | DEN -2.5 |
| books apart | 0.0 pts |
| since opening | unmoved since opening |
Jacksonville Jaguars — Wednesday practice
LPBrian Thomas Jr. WR · shoulder
LPJakobi Meyers WR · thumb
LPFoye Oluokun LB · wrist
LPCole Van Lanen OL · knee
Denver Broncos — Wednesday practice
DNPMarvin Mims Jr. WR · foot
DNPRJ Harvey RB · hamstring
FPTroy Franklin WR · knee
The angleUntouched since it opened, identical at both books, and the two models split on how big the gap is without splitting on its direction — ELWAY has Denver first in defence and Jacksonville second, which is why it makes this nearly a pick'em.
05Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland Browns
ELWAY -4.4 · nfelo -7.5 · QB Watson (70.7)
at
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ELWAY -0.1 · nfelo -1.0 · QB Mayfield (81.0)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market 1.0 pts apart
TB -9.0-9.0
ELWAYTB -6.0+3.0
nfeloTB -8.2+0.8
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Cleveland Browns
0.8pts
models 6.0 to 8.2market 9.0
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -4.4 / -0.1 |
| nfelo spread value | -7.5 / -1.0 |
| models apart | 2.2 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | TB -9.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | TB -8.5 |
| books apart | 1.0 pts |
| since opening | 0.5 pt toward TB |
Cleveland Browns — Wednesday practice
DNPTeven Jenkins G · undisclosed
LPDawand Jones T · undisclosed
LPElgton Jenkins C/G · undisclosed
LPParker Brailsford C · undisclosed
LPMaliek Collins DT · undisclosed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Wednesday practice
LPMiles Killebrew S · concussion
LPJacob Parrish CB · back
FPJalen McMillan WR · knee
The angleThe books are a point apart and the line has drifted toward Tampa Bay since opening, which is the direction the models lean against. The reason to be careful: five Cleveland offensive linemen are on the Wednesday report — Teven Jenkins out, Dawand Jones, Elgton Jenkins, Brailsford and Collins limited — for a team both models already rate last or near-last in offence. Accumulation on one unit is the third injury bucket, and it is judgement, not measurement.
06Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansSun 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles
ELWAY +1.8 · nfelo +1.6 · QB Hurts (84.7)
at
Tennessee Titans
ELWAY -5.0 · nfelo -6.4 · QB Ward (72.7)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market 1.0 pts apart
PHI -7.0+7.0
ELWAYPHI -5.1-1.9
nfeloPHI -6.3-0.7
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Tennessee Titans
0.7pts
models 5.1 to 6.3market 7.0
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | +1.8 / -5.0 |
| nfelo spread value | +1.6 / -6.4 |
| models apart | 1.2 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | PHI -6.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | PHI -7.5 |
| books apart | 1.0 pts |
| since opening | 0.5 pt toward PHI |
Philadelphia Eagles — Wednesday practice
DNPCooper DeJean DB · calf / abdomen
DNPJalen Carter DT · wrist
LPJonathan Greenard OLB · pectoral
Tennessee Titans — Wednesday practice
FPCedric Gray LB · concussion
LPJames Williams LB · elbow
The angleThe books are a full point apart — Philadelphia laying six and a half at one, seven and a half at the other — which is itself the story. Both models sit between them. When the books disagree by more than the models disagree with the market, there is no edge to have, only a question about which number you can actually get.
07Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSun 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers
ELWAY -1.3 · nfelo -0.9 · QB Rodgers (74.6)
at
New England Patriots
ELWAY +1.9 · nfelo +2.1 · QB Maye (88.5)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market two books agree
NE -5.5-5.5
ELWAYNE -4.9+0.6
nfeloNE -4.7+0.8
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Pittsburgh Steelers
0.6pts
models 4.7 to 4.9market 5.5
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -1.3 / +1.9 |
| nfelo spread value | -0.9 / +2.1 |
| models apart | 0.2 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | NE -5.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | NE -5.5 |
| books apart | 0.0 pts |
| since opening | unmoved since opening |
Pittsburgh Steelers — Wednesday practice
DNPTroy Fautanu OT · ankle
LPMichael Pittman WR · foot
DNPDarnell Washington TE · personal — rest day
LPJoey Porter Jr. CB · conditioning — rest day
New England Patriots — Wednesday practice
DNPCarlton Davis III CB · neck
DNPDametrious Crownover T · knee
LPBen Brown C · knee
LPRobert Spillane LB · knee
LPDre'Mont Jones LB · foot
The angleHas not moved a half-point since it opened, and both books and both models are inside a point of each other. It is carded because it is the cleanest number on the page, not because there is much in it.
08New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSun 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints
ELWAY -3.7 · nfelo -3.7 · QB Shough (78.7)
at
Baltimore Ravens
ELWAY +4.1 · nfelo +4.0 · QB Jackson (94.5)
spread, home teamnumbervs market
Market 1.0 pts apart
BAL -9.0-9.0
ELWAYBAL -9.5-0.5
nfeloBAL -9.4-0.4
CONSERVATIVE EDGE · Baltimore Ravens
0.4pts
models 9.4 to 9.5market 9.0
The two models
| ELWAY net rating | -3.7 / +4.1 |
| nfelo spread value | -3.7 / +4.0 |
| models apart | 0.1 pts |
| market |
| covers.com | BAL -9.5 |
| Sportsbook Review | BAL -8.5 |
| books apart | 1.0 pts |
| since opening | unmoved since opening |
New Orleans Saints — Wednesday practice
DNPJuwan Johnson TE · undisclosed
LPCameron Jordan LB · undisclosed
FPAlvin Kamara RB · undisclosed
Baltimore Ravens — Wednesday practice
DNPZay Flowers WR · hamstring
DNPTrey Hendrickson OLB · finger
DNPRonnie Stanley T · toe
DNPJohn Simpson G · groin
DNPT.J. Tampa CB · knee
LPNnamdi Madubuike DL · neck
DNPCalais Campbell DL · rest — rest day
The angleThe rare game where the two models agree almost exactly with each other — nine and a half against nine and a half — and both sit a shade past the market. It is on the page as the control: this is what agreement looks like. Baltimore's Wednesday report is long, though, with Flowers, Hendrickson, Stanley, Simpson and Tampa all sitting out, and none of that is resolved until Friday's designations land.
The games that do not get a card
Printed with the reason, because a filter that removes nearly half the slate has
to show its work. Six of these are model disagreements; one is a market that could not be pinned
down at all.
| CAR @ ATL | Sun 1:00 | market direction unverifiable | Three reads tonight and no two agree: Sportsbook Review's live board shows Atlanta −2.5, covers.com's moneyline shows Carolina marginally favoured at −117, and a bet365 snapshot from Sunday had Carolina −1.5. On top of that, Atlanta listed three quarterbacks on Wednesday — Tagovailoa out with an oblique, Penix and Cooper Rush full — with the coach saying the job is open to all three, and ELWAY's Atlanta rating is built on Tagovailoa. The two models are 5.6 points apart on it. Every input is in dispute. |
| SEA @ ARI | Sun 4:25 | models take opposite sides | nfelo makes Seattle 7.4 points better; ELWAY makes it a pick'em. A 7.5-point spread of opinion between two credible public models, and they land on opposite sides of a market that has moved a point and a half toward Arizona since opening. The explanation is structural, not noise: ELWAY prices Seattle through Lock at 68.4 QBERT, the lowest of any starter in the league, while nfelo's Elo reflects results. Nothing here is rankable. |
| NYG @ LAR | Mon 8:15 | models take opposite sides | The largest model disagreement of the week at 8.7 points. ELWAY has the Rams 24th and nearly an underdog on the road-adjusted number; nfelo has them 3rd. When two models are that far apart, the distance between either one and the market is not information. |
| GB @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 | models take opposite sides | A point and a half apart, but on opposite sides of a line that has come in a full point toward the Jets since opening. |
| CIN @ HOU | Sun 1:00 | models take opposite sides | ELWAY has Houston laying more than the market, nfelo has it laying less. The gap is small either way. |
| WAS @ DAL | Sun 4:25 | models take opposite sides | Straddling the market by about a point in each direction after the line moved a full point toward Washington. |
| IND @ KC | Sun 8:20 | models take opposite sides | Both models are within seven-tenths of the market and on opposite sides of it. There is nothing to say. |
| DET @ BUF | Thu | already played | Thursday night. Excluded because the page only cards games that have not started. |
What is still missing, and one thing that nearly went wrong
Home-field advantage is not fitted. Every model number on this page uses
1.7 points for home field. It is a reasonable modern estimate and it is a guess. It applies
equally to all fifteen games, so it cannot reorder the board against itself, but it can flip a
game that is close to a coin flip. It gets stated rather than buried until it is fitted against
results.
No win probability, and no scorecard. Converting a point gap into a
probability needs a conversion fitted against actual results, and the cross-sport scorer that
would record whether any of this works is still being built. The six baseball cards from Tuesday
are also still unscored. Until that exists this page ranks in points, which is measured, and
claims no record, because it has none.
A source warning. covers.com prints a "favourite" label that contradicted
its own moneyline on two of fifteen games tonight — it labelled Minnesota the favourite over
Chicago while quoting Chicago at −242. Direction on this page is taken from the sign of
the moneyline, never from a label, and cross-checked against a second book on every game. The
same rule caught VegasInsider attaching prices to the wrong team in baseball.
And a correction to a correction. An earlier draft of the framework was
about to report Sharp Football Analysis for listing Tua Tagovailoa under Atlanta, on the grounds
that he plays for Miami. He does not. Miami released him in March and Atlanta signed him.
The stale source was this page's own assumed knowledge, which is now checked against a
live source before any roster fact is printed.
The tennis and baseball archives are untouched
All 22 tennis editions and the first baseball edition are live and unchanged —
the archive holds them. PoolMethods still describes
only the tennis method and now owes two sections.
Built 2026-09-18 03:20 UTC. Sources: ELWAY team ratings via Silver Bulletin (net rating,
adjusted offence and defence, QBERT), transcribed and integrity-checked — net rating verified
equal to adjusted offence minus adjusted defence on all 32 rows; nfelo power ratings
(nfeloapp.com, free); spreads and opening lines from Sportsbook Review's seven-book board and
covers.com, with direction taken from moneyline sign on every game; injury reports from NFL.com
and Sharp Football Analysis, Wednesday participation only. Home-field advantage 1.7 points,
unfitted and stated.