Seven first-round matches across three indoor events, Monday and Tuesday. Six make a pick under our rule, but read the two biggest gaps with care: when the ratings and the odds are twenty points apart, it is nearly always the ratings that have missed something. How to read this: we work out what each player's chance should be from hard-court results, then compare it with what the betting odds say.
The hard-court ratings make Marin Čilić a 71% chance. The odds make him 42%, and they have moved hard against him: from 2.07 to 2.36 at Pinnacle since the open.
Čilić pulled out of the US Open with an injury that was never named and has won one of three matches since. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won two qualifying matches here this weekend.
Against it Our rule makes Čilić the pick, and we will grade it, but a 29-point gap is the ratings missing something rather than the market. The only doubt on the other side: Basilashvili stopped at 2–2 in the second set against Mannarino in Shanghai, for a reason we could not find. Čilić leads their meetings 2–0.
| Odds say | Basilashvili 58% · Čilić 42% |
| Ratings say | Čilić 71% · 29 points apart, on Čilić |
| Line | Opened Čilić 2.07 / Basilashvili 1.82 · now 2.36 / 1.64 · 6 points towards Basilashvili, away from the ratings |
| Fitness | Čilić: withdrew from the US Open, injury not named; 1–2 since · Basilashvili: stopped mid-match in Shanghai, reason not found; two qualifying wins here |
| Head-to-head | Čilić 2–0 |
The odds give Adrian Mannarino 61%. The ratings give him 55%, which leaves Aleksandar Vukic at 45% against the odds' 39%. The pick is Vukic.
Their meetings are level at 2–2, and Vukic won both in 2024, one of them here in Almaty.
Against it Mannarino reached the third round in Shanghai last week. The line has barely moved, edging a point towards Vukic.
| Odds say | Mannarino 61% · Vukic 39% |
| Ratings say | Mannarino 55% · 6 points apart, on Vukic |
| Line | Opened Mannarino 1.56 / Vukic 2.56 · now 1.58 / 2.49 · a point towards Vukic |
| Head-to-head | 2–2 · both 2024 meetings to Vukic, including Almaty |
The odds give Miomir Kecmanović 62%. The ratings give him 56%, so James Duckworth is the pick at 2.45.
They have never played.
Against it Duckworth has lost five straight, and the ratings were last updated before most of them. This is a small edge on a player in poor form.
| Odds say | Kecmanović 62% · Duckworth 38% |
| Ratings say | Kecmanović 56% · 6 points apart, on Duckworth |
| Line | Opened Kecmanović 1.60 / Duckworth 2.45 · now 1.58 / 2.49 · flat |
| Form | Duckworth: five straight losses |
| Head-to-head | never played |
Raphaël Collignon was due to play Holger Rune, who withdrew with a back problem; he now meets the qualifier Nishesh Basavareddy. The ratings give Collignon 55%, the odds 43%. The pick is Collignon.
Collignon has not played since the US Open at the end of August and has lost five straight; the Belgian press has written about a loss of confidence rather than an injury.
Against it Basavareddy won their only meeting, at Winston-Salem in 2025, and has matches in his legs from qualifying. The ratings have not seen Collignon's seven weeks off. The time is the tournament's placeholder and may move.
| Odds say | Basavareddy 57% · Collignon 43% |
| Ratings say | Collignon 55% · 12 points apart, on Collignon |
| Line | No Pinnacle price · bet365 1.67 / 2.20, unchanged |
| Form | Collignon: no match since 31 Aug, five straight losses · Basavareddy: through qualifying |
| Head-to-head | Basavareddy 1–0 · Winston-Salem 2025 |
The odds give Yannick Hanfmann 53%. The ratings give him 59%. The pick is Hanfmann.
Martin Damm got in as a lucky loser after losing in three sets in qualifying yesterday.
Against it Damm's line in the ratings table carries a career peak from 1999, which is his father's, so his rating may be contaminated and the gap unreliable. They have never played, and other books have moved slightly towards Hanfmann already.
| Odds say | Hanfmann 53% · Damm 47% |
| Ratings say | Hanfmann 59% · 7 points apart, on Hanfmann · Damm's rating may include his father's record |
| Line | Pinnacle 1.86 / 2.02, no movement recorded · other books towards Hanfmann |
| Head-to-head | never played |
The ratings make Lorenzo Sonego an 80% chance; the odds make him 59%. The pick is Sonego.
Kouame is in on a wildcard, and his hard-court rating is built on very few tour-level matches, which is why it is so low.
Against it A thin record makes a rating unreliable in both directions, and the money has moved two points towards Kouame since the open. They have never played.
| Odds say | Sonego 59% · Kouame 41% |
| Ratings say | Sonego 80% · 21 points apart, on Sonego · Kouame's rating rests on very few matches |
| Line | Opened Sonego 1.60 / Kouame 2.46 · now 1.65 / 2.35 · 2 points towards Kouame |
| Head-to-head | never played |
The odds give Lorenzo Musetti 65%, the ratings 66%.
Musetti broke a finger on his right hand in training in Tokyo at the end of September and has played once since, losing to Zhou Yi in Shanghai. He leads Matteo Arnaldi 5–0.
Against it The money has moved four points towards Arnaldi since the open, which is the market pricing in the finger.
| Odds say | Musetti 65% · Arnaldi 35% |
| Ratings say | Musetti 66% · 1.4 points apart |
| Line | Opened Arnaldi 3.11 / Musetti 1.40 · now 2.77 / 1.49 · 4 points towards Arnaldi |
| Fitness | Musetti: fractured right ring finger, 30 Sep; one match since |
| Head-to-head | Musetti 5–0 |
Hockey went five for seven (Detroit, Florida, Vegas, Ottawa and Utah won; St Louis and Nashville lost). Seattle lost 17–14 in overtime in Denver, the Dodgers lost Game 4 and were swept, and Paul lost to Medvedev. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won Shanghai, beating Zverev and then Jodar 1–6 7–6 6–4 in the final; the pool's final standings are up.