Vol. I · No. 18Thursday, 3 September 2026US Open · second round
Ten of the more interesting matches on a thirty-match schedule — not the day’s whole card. Every favourite won yesterday, the first clean sweep in thirteen days, and the ratings still have not seen a single match of this tournament.
Conditions
US OpenFlushing Meadows, New York
Sunny and pleasant, high near 78°F (26°C), north-west wind 7–12 mph, humidity low. Clear tonight, low 60°F (16°C). No precipitation forecast at any point today or tonight.
The first day of this tournament with nothing to say about the weather. After Tuesday's washout and Wednesday's catch-up, the draw is finally back on schedule and every court is usable all day. The wind is the only variable worth a sentence: 7–12 mph from the north-west is enough to matter on the show courts, which run roughly north-south, and is the kind of breeze that troubles a high ball toss more than a flat one.
Where the tournament stands
Every favourite won. All ten cards this brief carried on Wednesday went to the market's pick — the first clean sweep of a full card in thirteen days. The one that took longest was Ignacio Buse, four days after winning the Winston-Salem title, beating Marcos Giron 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1 in three hours forty-eight for his first five-set win. Ben Shelton needed four sets and a third-set tiebreak to see off Hubert Hurkacz, Ann Li came from a set down over Donna Vekić in 2h44, and Emma Navarro did the same against Caty McNally in an all-American second round. Zachary Svajda justified a price this page could not explain, beating Daniel Altmaier in four. And on a court this brief was not watching, the lucky loser Yunchaokete Bu beat the 12th seed Rafael Jodar 6-2 6-1 6-1 — the same fixture that appeared here on Tuesday as a card with every row blank, and which by then had already ceased to exist. Bu is on the page today.
Yesterday's brief, scored
Ten cards, ten results, and the favourite won all ten. That has never happened on a full card before, and after twelve days of the tally sitting under half it is worth being suspicious of rather than pleased about.
Match
Vegas
Result
01
Navarro v McNally
54 / 46
Navarro 3-6 6-2 6-3 — from a set down favourite
02
Etcheverry v Fearnley
55 / 45
Etcheverry 6-3 6-3 3-6 6-3 — 3h18 favourite
03
Vacherot v Majchrzak
55 / 45
Vacherot 6-4 4-6 7-6 6-2 favourite
04
Svajda v Altmaier
59 / 41
Svajda 6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2 — the strange price came off favourite
05
Giron v Buse
40 / 60
Buse 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1 — 3h48, his first five-set win favourite
06
Marozsán v Zheng
40 / 60
Zheng 6-4 6-4 6-2 — a first main-draw win here favourite
07
Li v Vekić
60 / 40
Li 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4 — 2h44, from a set down favourite
08
Shelton v Hurkacz
68 / 32
Shelton 6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 7-5 favourite
09
Sakamoto v Tiafoe
24 / 76
Tiafoe 6-3 7-6(2) 7-5 favourite
10
Tararudee v Nosková
22 / 78
Nosková 6-4 6-2 favourite
Buse won, and the deep-run flag has its fifth result. Four days after winning the Winston-Salem title he beat Marcos Giron 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7(6) 6-1 in three hours forty-eight — his first five-set win, through a rain delay, having lost a fourth-set tiebreak. The flag said to be careful of him; he was pushed to the limit and came through. Five settled flags now: Parry won, Tiafoe won, Buse won, Royer lost, Fery lost. Their prices implied 2.56 wins between them and they won three. The flag is running slightly against its own thesis, and this is the third edition in a row that has had to say so.
One refinement to that rule, made today. Buse is not flagged again on card 02, even though the title is only five days back, because he has now played a match at this tournament — so his “previous tournament” is this one. The flag lapses once a player has completed a match at the new event. Without that, a title-winner would carry a flag for a fortnight and the experiment would stop measuring anything.
Two things this brief got wrong resolved yesterday. The Svajda price — which Wednesday's page said it could not explain, a −160 favourite over a higher-ranked opponent leading the head-to-head 2-0 — came off comfortably, 6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2. And the card that flagged Alexei Popyrin's injury retirement as “the most concrete fitness fact on the page” watched him break Grigor Dimitrov six times. Both are cases where the page correctly reported what it did not know, and what it did not know turned out to be the answer.
Card 08 on Tuesday has a postscript. Jodar v Kokkinakis was published with every row blank and turned out never to have existed — Kokkinakis withdrew, and the lucky loser Yunchaokete Bu took the place. Bu then beat Jodar, a 12th seed the model rates sixth in the world, 6-2 6-1 6-1. He is on card 06 today.
Thirteen days. Selected matches played to a finish have gone to the favourite 58 times in 101 — and for the first time the running figure is clearly above half.
Elo v Vegas
The model's best day of the tournament: closer on five of ten. Across twelve days it stands at 28 of 67.
Match
Vegas
Elo
Won
Navarro v McNally
54.1
49.2
Navarro
Vegas closer
Etcheverry v Fearnley
55.1
57.0
Etcheverry
Elo closer
Vacherot v Majchrzak
55.4
61.2
Vacherot
Elo closer
Svajda v Altmaier
59.0
51.0
Svajda
Vegas closer
Giron v Buse
40.4
37.8
Buse
Elo closer
Marozsán v Zheng
40.0
46.3
Zheng
Vegas closer
Li v Vekić
60.1
56.1
Li
Vegas closer
Shelton v Hurkacz
68.2
72.9
Shelton
Elo closer
Sakamoto v Tiafoe
24.1
15.4
Tiafoe
Elo closer
Tararudee v Nosková
21.9
23.9
Nosková
Vegas closer
A even day, and the pattern noted on Tuesday held again: the model won where it was more confident than the market about a favourite who then won — Etcheverry, Vacherot, Shelton, Tiafoe, Buse — and lost where it was cooler. On a day when every favourite won, being the bolder of the two lines was simply the right bet. That is worth remembering when a day breaks the other way.
The ratings are three days old today. Both files are still stamped 31 August and have not rebuilt since, which now means they have not seen a single match of this tournament. Card 06 is where that bites hardest: the model still rates Rafael Jodar sixth in the world, and he lost 6-2 6-1 6-1 to a lucky loser on Wednesday.
Ten worth watching · closest first
01ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~5:00 PM ET
Zachary Svajda
🇺🇸 USA · Rank — · Age 24 · —
VS
Arthur Géa
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank — · Age 22 · —
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Svajda 53%Géa 47%
A six-book grid — Svajda −120, Géa +105. The closest price of the day and the widest disagreement on the page.
Elo model · 31 AugSvajda 36.6% · Géa 63.4%Elo flips the favourite
Head-to-head
Not established
Whether they have met could not be established before publication. Unknown, not nil.
Form & workload
Svajda last 5Not reliably sourced.
Géa last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Svajda
Géa
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1705 105th
1746 86th
Hard court
1665 102nd
1760 44th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
—
—
Hard
—
—
Clay
—
—
Grass
—
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (4)
1 (5)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Sep 2
Sep 1
Look at Géa's two Elo rows. He is 86th overall and 44th on hard court — a 42-place improvement, by far the largest on this page and one of the largest the brief has printed. That is the same shape as Talia Gibson's card on Sunday, where the model flipped the favourite on a surface rating well above the overall one and was emphatically wrong. It is worth saying that out loud before leaning on it. Both men arrive off long wins: Svajda beat Altmaier in four, Géa came from two sets to one down to beat Juan Manuel Cerúndolo 6-3 2-6 3-6 6-3 6-1 in five.
Health & notes
Svajda: no injury concerns found. Yesterday's brief could not explain why the market made him a −160 favourite over a higher-ranked Altmaier who led their head-to-head 2-0. He won 6-3 6-1 6-7(5) 6-2. The only rationale found even now is an unverified betting-analysis claim of a 17-8 hard-court record and a San Diego title this year — reported here as unconfirmed, because it is.
Géa: no injury concerns found. He is 22 and reached the second round by winning a five-setter from behind. Nothing was found that explains the gap between his overall and hard-court ratings, which is precisely why it is flagged rather than trusted.
AssessmentThe market calls it a coin toss and the model does not: Elo gives Géa 63.4% against the market's 47.2%, a sixteen-point gap and a flipped favourite. The whole disagreement rests on one number — a hard-court rating forty-two places above his overall — and the last time this page leaned on exactly that number it lost. Both men have five sets and four sets in their legs from the last two days.
02ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~5:00 PM ET
Benjamin Bonzi
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank 97 · Age 30 · Right-handed
VS
Ignacio Buse
🇵🇪 PER · Rank 30–31 · Age 22 · Right-handed · seed 32
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Bonzi 46%Buse 54%
A six-book grid — Bonzi +114, Buse −126.
Elo model · 31 AugBonzi 43.5% · Buse 56.5%2.1 pt gap
Head-to-head
Buse leads 1-0
Buse 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 — 2026 Winston-Salem SF Hard
They played eleven days ago, in the Winston-Salem semifinal, and it took 1h51. Buse won it and then took the title. Confirmed on the tour's own report.
Form & workload
Bonzi last 5Not reliably sourced.
Buse last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Bonzi
Buse
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1747 85th
1843 32nd
Hard court
1709 77th
1754 47th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
517-333
184-114
Hard
198-112
24-17
Clay
140-104
142-86
Grass
33-20
3-4
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (4)
1 (5)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Sep 2/3
Sep 2
A rematch of a semifinal from eleven days ago, and both men have had a strange week since. Buse won that semifinal, won the final on Saturday, then had his first round here rained off on Tuesday and played it Wednesday instead — 3h48 and five sets against Giron, coming through a fourth-set tiebreak to win the fifth 6-1. It was his first five-set win. Bonzi's first round was also broken by the weather: it started Tuesday, was stopped after three games, and finished a day later. So both arrive off disrupted, extended matches, and neither has had a normal week.
Health & notes
Buse: no injury concerns found. The deep-run flag raised on him twice this week resolves as a miss: he won. Since 24 August he has played a title run and a near-four-hour five-setter, and he is 22. Whatever the accumulated cost of that is, it has not shown up yet.
Bonzi: no injury concerns found. Ranked 97, and Wednesday's win over Molcan was his first Grand Slam main-draw win of 2026 after first-round exits at all three previous majors. He is 30 and beat Halys, Hijikata and van de Zandschulp on the way to that Winston-Salem semifinal.
AssessmentThe market has moved a long way since Winston-Salem: Buse was the underdog in that semifinal and is the favourite now, on the strength of a title and a ranking that has climbed to about 30. Elo agrees but by less, at 56.5% against 54.4%. The number neither line prices is that Buse has played five sets and three hours forty-eight minutes since Wednesday lunchtime, and this is the one card where that might finally matter.
03ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~11:05 AM ET · under way
Luciano Darderi
🇮🇹 ITA · Rank 22 · Age 24 · Right-handed · seed 21
VS
Dalibor Svrčina
🇨🇿 CZE · Rank ≈134 · Age 23 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Darderi 57%Svrčina 43%
A six-book grid — Darderi −145, Svrčina +128.
Elo model · 31 AugDarderi 64.8% · Svrčina 35.2%7.4 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Darderi last 5Not reliably sourced.
Svrčina last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Darderi
Svrčina
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1821 41st
1615 164th
Hard court
1702 82nd
1596 142nd
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
234-153
270-188
Hard
30-30
100-67
Clay
197-104
141-102
Grass
6-10
2-5
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (4)
1 (5)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Aug 31
Aug 31
Both won long first rounds on Monday and both have had two days off since — which on this schedule counts as luxury. Darderi beat the qualifier Harry Wendelken 6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5 in about four hours; Svrčina beat Valentin Royer 6-4 6-3 5-7 5-7 6-2, having led two sets to love and been pegged back to two-all. The career rows are the argument for the underdog: Darderi is 197-104 on clay and exactly 30-30 on outdoor hard, and his rating falls from 41st overall to 82nd on this surface, the steepest surface drop on the page.
Health & notes
Darderi: no injury concerns found. He was reported bandaged and fatigued after a 6-1 6-0 defeat at Winston-Salem on 26 August, and this brief flagged that as a caution rather than a diagnosis; he has since won a four-hour four-setter, which is some answer to it.
Svrčina: no injury concerns found. He came through five sets on Monday after leading by two and losing two, which is a hard way to win and a long time on court.
AssessmentA seed who is even on hard courts across his whole career against a man who has just spent five sets learning how to close one out. Elo is warmer on Darderi than the market at 64.8% against 57.4%, which reads oddly given the surface split — the overall rating is doing the work there, and the surface row is the one that disagrees with it.
04ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~3:00 PM ET
Alexei Popyrin
🇦🇺 AUS · Rank ≈139 · Age 27 · Right-handed · wildcard
VS
Alejandro Tabilo
🇨🇱 CHI · Rank 28 · Age 29 · Left-handed · seed 25
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Popyrin 41%Tabilo 59%
A six-book grid — Popyrin +142, Tabilo −150.
Elo model · 31 AugPopyrin 37.4% · Tabilo 62.6%3.4 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Popyrin last 5Not reliably sourced.
Tabilo last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Popyrin
Tabilo
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1727 94th
1807 43rd
Hard court
1668 99th
1758 46th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
305-269
461-301
Hard
147-127
132-90
Clay
91-70
274-164
Grass
25-29
12-13
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (4)
1 (4)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Aug 31
Aug 31
Popyrin's fortnight is the most improbable on this page. He retired injured at Quebec City on 20 August with an apparent groin problem, entered here on a wildcard with his ranking down around 139, and then beat Grigor Dimitrov 3-6 6-3 6-2 6-4 on Monday, breaking the former world No. 3 six times. This brief's card on that match called the retirement “the most concrete fitness fact on the page”; it turned out not to matter at all. Tabilo beat Hanfmann in four the same day. Career rows put Tabilo ahead on hard, 132-90 against 147-127, but neither page is current.
Health & notes
Popyrin: no injury concerns found since the Quebec City retirement on 20 August, and the Dimitrov win is strong evidence the groin is not limiting him. He won the Canadian Open in 2024, so the ceiling is high and the ranking is misleading.
Tabilo: no injury concerns found. Seeded 25, left-handed, and his hard-court rating of 46th sits close to his overall 43rd — a player with no strong surface preference either way.
AssessmentA wildcard ranked around 139 who has just beaten a former world No. 3, priced at nearly two-to-one against a seed. Both lines agree on the direction and Elo is slightly cooler on Popyrin at 37.4%. The interesting question is whether the market has fully repriced a man whose ranking was earned while he was injured and whose last match said otherwise.
05ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~11:05 AM ET · under way
Jan-Lennard Struff
🇩🇪 GER · Rank ≈41 · Age 36 · Right-handed
VS
Francisco Cerúndolo
🇦🇷 ARG · Rank — · Age 28 · Right-handed · seed 24
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Struff 40%Cerúndolo 60%
A six-book grid — Struff +142, Cerúndolo −160.
Elo model · 31 AugStruff 27.1% · Cerúndolo 72.9%13.1 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
One preview referenced a meeting at Munich on clay earlier this year, but no result could be verified, so nothing is claimed.
Form & workload
Struff last 5Not reliably sourced.
Cerúndolo last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Struff
Cerúndolo
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1734 90th
1875 25th
Hard court
1651 113th
1823 25th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
686-493
—
Hard
105-115
—
Clay
346-195
—
Grass
33-40
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (3)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Sep 1
Sep 2
The widest disagreement between the two lines on the page after card 01. The market gives Struff 40.2% and the model gives him 27.1% — thirteen points — because Cerúndolo's hard-court rating is 25th, identical to his overall, while Struff's falls from 90th to 113th on the surface. Struff's career hard record is a losing one at 105-115, from a page frozen at January 2025. Both won in straight sets in round one: Struff over Ugo Carabelli, Cerúndolo over Mišolič in 2h23, the latter ending a run in which he had won one match since early in the season.
Health & notes
Struff: no injury concerns found. He is 36 and reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon this year, which at that age is the least likely line on this page.
Cerúndolo: no injury concerns found. Seeded 24 and, before Wednesday, in a slump — first-round exits at Wimbledon, Toronto and Cincinnati. The straight-sets win over Mišolič is his best evidence in two months.
AssessmentA 36-year-old with a losing hard-court record against a seed who has just come out of a slump, and the model is far more confident about it than the market. Elo has watched Cerúndolo's whole career and rates him 25th on this surface; the market has watched him lose three first rounds in a row and prices him nearer the middle.
06ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~5:00 PM ET
Yunchaokete Bu
🇨🇳 CHN · Rank — · Age 24 · — · lucky loser
VS
Michael Zheng
🇺🇸 USA · Rank ≈120 · Age 22 · Right-handed · wildcard
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Bu 38%Zheng 62%
A six-book grid — Bu +155, Zheng −180.
Elo model · 31 AugBu 32.4% · Zheng 67.6%5.5 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Bu last 5Not reliably sourced.
Zheng last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Bu
Zheng
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
2026 season (W-L)
—
24-13
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1668 130th
1801 45th
Hard court
1626 128th
1753 48th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
—
75-41
Hard
—
53-26
Clay
—
12-7
Grass
—
0-1
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (3)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Sep 2
Sep 2
A lucky loser against a wildcard, and both got here by beating someone they should not have. Bu took the place of Thanasi Kokkinakis, who withdrew injured before the first round — that is the match this brief published on Tuesday with every row blank because no research had been done on it, and which turned out not to exist. Bu then beat Rafael Jodar, the 12th seed and sixth in the world by Elo, 6-2 6-1 6-1. Zheng, in on a wildcard as the reigning NCAA champion, beat Marozsán 6-4 6-4 6-2 for his first main-draw win here. Both results are single-sourced.
Health & notes
Bu: no injury concerns found. He is rated 128th on hard court, the second-lowest in this edition, and he has just beaten a player the model ranks eighth. If that result is accurate it is the most model-defying scoreline of the tournament so far.
Zheng: no injury concerns found. American, 22, NCAA champion, and now 24-13 for the year — a better record than the man he beat on Wednesday, who is ranked sixty-five places above him.
AssessmentTwo players in the draw by accident — one a lucky loser, one a wildcard — meeting in a second round, and both arriving off straight-sets wins over higher-ranked opposition. The market makes Zheng a 62% favourite and Elo goes further at 67.6%. Bu's win over Jodar is the single result on this page that neither line has absorbed.
07WTA R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~11:00 AM ET · under way
Nikola Bartunková
🇨🇿 CZE · Rank — · Age 20 · Right-handed
VS
Tatjana Maria
🇩🇪 GER · Rank — · Age 39 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Bartunková 67%Maria 33%
A six-book grid — Bartunková −225, Maria +190.
Elo model · 31 AugBartunková 69.9% · Maria 30.1%3.2 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Bartunková last 5Not reliably sourced.
Maria last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Bartunková
Maria
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1833 38th
1735 87th
Hard court
1778 41st
1632 125th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
183-94
—
Hard
32-15
—
Clay
84-48
—
Grass
4-0
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (2)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Sep 2
Sep 2
A nineteen-year age gap, the widest the brief has carried. Bartunková is 20 and beat Mayar Sherif 6-1 6-2 in 1h33; Maria is 39 and beat Jeļena Ostapenko 4-6 6-1 6-2 in 2h11, which is a considerable scalp. One source dates both first rounds to today, which is impossible, so they are given without dates. Bartunková's career hard record is 32-15 against a clay record of 84-48 — she is the clay player of the two by record, on a hard court, which the ratings do not reflect.
Health & notes
Bartunková: no injury concerns found. She reached the Monterrey semifinals ten days ago and served a six-month suspension in 2024 after a positive test the ITIA accepted came from a contaminated supplement, with a finding of no significant fault.
Maria: no injury concerns found. At 39 she is the oldest player the brief has covered, and she has just beaten a former Roland Garros champion from a set down. Her hard-court rating of 125th is 38 places below her overall 87th — the largest negative surface gap on this page, and the mirror image of Géa on card 01.
AssessmentTwo-to-one on the 20-year-old, and the two lines agree closely at 66.8% and 69.9%. The case for the veteran is the one she just made against Ostapenko; the case against her is that her game travels much worse to a hard court than to anything else, which is exactly what her surface rating says.
08WTA R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~11:00 AM ET · under way
Qinwen Zheng
🇨🇳 CHN · Rank — · Age 23 · Right-handed
VS
Yulia Putintseva
🇰🇿 KAZ · Rank 80–84 · Age 31 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Zheng 71%Putintseva 29%
A six-book grid — Zheng −275, Putintseva +240.
Elo model · 31 AugZheng 62.0% · Putintseva 38.0%9.4 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Zheng last 5Not reliably sourced.
Putintseva last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Zheng
Putintseva
2026 season (W-L)
—
16-13
Past month (W-L)
—
0-3 before this week
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1829 40th
1764 73rd
Hard court
1808 29th
1722 71st
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
—
—
Hard
—
—
Clay
—
—
Grass
—
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
—
1 (3)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
—
Sep 1
Putintseva arrives off the biggest upset this brief has recorded. On Tuesday she beat the 12th seed Belinda Bencic 4-6 7-5 6-3 in 2h51, from a set down, as a 21% underdog — confirmed on the tour's own recap, which called it a stunning result. This page had flagged Bencic's hip and said the fitness question was the card. Zheng's own first-round result could not be retrieved before publication, so her side of this table is empty; her hard-court rating of 29th is eleven places above her overall 40th, the second-largest positive surface gap here.
Health & notes
Zheng: no injury concerns found, though with no first-round result retrieved that finding is weaker than usual. She has been a top-ten player and the model still rates her well above her ranking on this surface.
Putintseva: no injury concerns found. She is 31, and before Tuesday she had played three North American events without a main-draw win, the last of them a defeat in qualifying at Monterrey. Then she beat a seed in three sets.
AssessmentNearly three-to-one on Zheng and the model is a good deal cooler at 62.0% — a nine-point gap, mostly because the ratings still price Putintseva at 71st on hard and have not seen Tuesday. The market has. What neither can price is whether a 2h51 upset three days ago is a springboard or a bill.
09ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~11:05 AM ET · under way
Félix Auger-Aliassime
🇨🇦 CAN · Rank — · Age 26 · Right-handed · seed 3
VS
Karen Khachanov
🇷🇺 RUS · Rank — · Age 30 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Auger-Aliassime 72%Khachanov 28%
A six-book grid — Auger-Aliassime −295, Khachanov +240.
Elo model · 31 AugAuger-Aliassime 75.6% · Khachanov 24.4%3.8 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
They have almost certainly met before — both have been in the top thirty for years — but no record could be retrieved before publication, so nothing is claimed.
Form & workload
Auger-Aliassime last 5Not reliably sourced.
Khachanov last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Auger-Aliassime
Khachanov
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1973 8th
1791 56th
Hard court
1938 7th
1742 55th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
—
—
Hard
—
—
Clay
—
—
Grass
—
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (4)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
Aug 31
Aug 31
The biggest name on the page and the one with the most work behind him. Auger-Aliassime is the third seed and needed four sets to beat Rinky Hijikata, 7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5 — three of those sets going to 7-5 or 6-4. Khachanov beat Roman Burruchaga 6-3 6-0 6-1, dropping four games in three sets, which is the most economical first round of anyone in this edition. That contrast is the only live argument on the card and neither line prices it.
Health & notes
Auger-Aliassime: no injury concerns found. Seeded 3 and rated 7th on hard court, the second-highest rating in this edition behind nobody — he is the strongest player on this page by some distance.
Khachanov: no injury concerns found. He is 30, rated 55th on hard, and has just dropped four games in a completed match.
AssessmentNearly three-to-one, and the two lines agree at 71.8% and 75.6%. The number worth holding onto is the first-round comparison: the favourite spent four sets and the underdog spent seventy-odd minutes. That has never been enough on its own, and it is the only thing here that the price does not already contain.
10ATP R2US Open · Hard (outdoor)~1:00 PM ET
Alexander Blockx
🇧🇪 BEL · Rank — · Age 21 · —
VS
Marco Trungelliti
🇦🇷 ARG · Rank ≈80 · Age 36 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Blockx 83%Trungelliti 17%
A six-book grid — Blockx −550, Trungelliti +470. The widest price on the page.
Elo model · 31 AugBlockx 79.2% · Trungelliti 20.8%3.6 pt gap
Head-to-head
Not established
No previous meeting could be established before publication.
Form & workload
Blockx last 5Not reliably sourced.
Trungelliti last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Blockx
Trungelliti
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
—
—
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 31 Aug
Overall
1869 26th
1656 141st
Hard court
1770 39th
1538 185th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
—
693-465
Hard
—
97-83
Clay
—
558-335
Grass
—
9-14
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
—
1 (5)
Last 30 days
—
—
Last played
—
Sep 1
Trungelliti is 36 and got here the hard way. He lost the first set to Juncheng Shang 6-0, went two sets to one down, survived a rain delay while serving for it, and won 0-6 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 6-4 — reportedly his first US Open main-draw win in five years. Blockx is 21 and rated 26th overall, 39th on hard. His first-round result could not be retrieved. The career rows are the whole story of the surface: Trungelliti is 558-335 on clay and 97-83 on hard, and his hard-court rating drops from 141st to 185th.
Health & notes
Blockx: no injury concerns found, though almost nothing else about him could be established either — no first round, no ranking, no career record.
Trungelliti: no injury concerns found beyond the obvious: he is 36 and played five sets on Monday. He reached a career-high 76th in April this year, at an age when essentially nobody does.
AssessmentFive-and-a-half to one, and both lines agree it is roughly right — 82.8% against 79.2%. It is on this page not because it is close but because of what the underdog did on Monday: a 36-year-old, a first set lost to love, two sets to one down, a rain delay, and a win anyway.
Also on the schedule
These ten are a selection, not the day's card. Roughly thirty singles matches are being played at Flushing Meadows today across both draws. Ten are covered here because they looked the most interesting — a coin toss where the model and the market disagree by sixteen points, a rematch of a semifinal from eleven days ago, a lucky loser who beat the 12th seed, and a 36-year-old who came from two sets to one down through a rain delay. The rest of the schedule is not covered and nothing here should be read as saying it was filtered out.