The Daily Lob

Where the tournament stands

The rain won. Outer courts did not start until 2:45 PM on Tuesday, at least five first-round matches never began, and two more were suspended part-played — which is why this day-four page carries two first-round cards. Under the Ashe roof, Alexander Zverev survived Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-5 6-4 in four hours fifty-three minutes, finishing at 1:55 AM. The result of the day was on Stadium 17, where Yulia Putintseva beat the 12th seed Belinda Bencic 4-6 7-5 6-3 from a set down — Bencic had been a 79% favourite and had not completed a match in a fortnight because of a hip problem. Jan-Lennard Struff beat Ugo Carabelli in straight sets, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro beat Darja Vidmanová 6-3 6-4, and Lorenzo Musetti ended Arthur Fery's week 6-3 6-3 7-5, four days after Fery lost the Winston-Salem final. Today the backlog is cleared on a dry, cool, breezy afternoon.

Yesterday's brief, scored

Nine cards and only five results. Rain took two before they started, one could not be traced, and one turned out never to have existed.

	Match	Vegas	Result
01	Vidmanová v Bouzas Maneiro	48 / 52	Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-4 favourite
02	Giron v Buse	40 / 60	Rained off before it started — replayed today, card 05 below no result
03	Marozsán v Zheng	40 / 60	Rained off before it started — replayed today, card 06 below no result
04	Carabelli v Struff	34 / 66	Struff 6-4 6-3 6-3 favourite
05	Jovic v Frech	72 / 28	Status could not be established — delayed before starting, no result found no result
06	Fery v Musetti	23 / 77	Musetti 6-3 6-3 7-5 favourite
07	Putintseva v Bencic	21 / 79	Putintseva 4-6 7-5 6-3 — 2h51, from a set down underdog
08	Jodar v Kokkinakis	87 / 13	Never existed — Kokkinakis withdrew injured, a lucky loser replaced him, then rain no result
09	Zverev v Sonego	88 / 12	Zverev 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-5 6-4 — 4h53, finished at 1:55 AM favourite

The forecast was right and it was the story of the day. Yesterday's brief opened by saying the weather was the largest caveat on the page, that eight of nine matches were on unroofed courts under an 80% chance of storms the National Weather Service called possibly severe, and that every start time should be treated as provisional. Outer courts did not begin until 2:45 PM, at least five first-round matches never started, and two more were suspended mid-match. The one card that said it was “certain to be played” because of the roof — Zverev v Sonego — was played, and took four hours fifty-three minutes, finishing at 1:55 AM.

The Bencic flag came off, and emphatically. Yesterday's card said “the seed is the one to worry about here”, set out two tournament-ending hip incidents in the three weeks before the match, noted she had not completed a match in a fortnight, and closed: “neither line can see a fitness question. That question is the card.” Putintseva won 4-6 7-5 6-3 in 2h51, from a set down, against a 79% favourite. It is the largest upset by market probability the brief has recorded. The honest counterweight is the one printed here on Monday: this brief has raised a dozen such flags and most of the players went out and won anyway.

Card 08 described a match that never existed, and the card had already said it knew nothing. Jodar v Kokkinakis was published with a verified price, a verified rating and every other row an em-dash, because no research budget was spent on it. In fact Kokkinakis had withdrawn injured; a lucky loser, Bu Yunchaokete, took his place, and that match was then rained off too. Publishing an un-researched card is how a fixture that had already changed got onto the page. That is the argument against ever doing it again, and it is a better argument than the one made yesterday for doing it.

The deep-run flag on Ignacio Buse has been withdrawn rather than scored. His match was rained off before a ball was struck, so the flag was never tested — and a flag on a match that was not played is not a data point. It is removed from the experiment and raised again today at four days instead of three, on card 05. Arthur Fery's flag did resolve: he lost to Musetti in straight sets, which is what a 23% underdog was expected to do.

Twelve days. Selected matches played to a finish have gone to the favourite 48 times in 91.

Elo v Vegas

The model's second blank day in four: closer on none of five. Across eleven days it stands at 23 of 57.

Match	Vegas	Elo	Won
Vidmanová v Bouzas Maneiro	48.0	57.9	Bouzas Maneiro	Vegas closer
Carabelli v Struff	34.4	42.2	Struff	Vegas closer
Fery v Musetti	22.6	41.2	Musetti	Vegas closer
Putintseva v Bencic	21.2	20.8	Putintseva	Vegas closer
Zverev v Sonego	88.3	86.5	Zverev	Vegas closer

Two of the five were close — Putintseva and Zverev were separated from the market by under two points either way — but the other three were not, and the Fery card was the worst of them: the model gave him 41.2% where the market gave him 22.6%, and he lost in straight sets. Twenty-three from fifty-seven is 40%, and for the first time the model is clearly behind rather than level. That is still a small sample, but it is no longer a coin.

The deep-run experiment stands at four settled flags. Parry won, Tiafoe won, Fery lost, Royer lost. Their prices implied 1.96 wins between them; they won two. That is dead level — the flag is finding nothing so far, in either direction. The rule set out when it was added was to report the count and decline a verdict until fifteen, and that is what this is.