The Daily Lob

Where the tournament stands

Three underdogs won at Winston-Salem on Thursday and all three are in today's semifinals. Ignacio Buse came from a set down to beat eighth seed Juan Manuel Cerúndolo 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2; Benjamin Bonzi beat Botic van de Zandschulp 7-6(5) 6-4 the night after the Dutchman conceded a single game to the second seed; and James Duckworth, 34, beat Fabián Marozsán 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 in a match that started at 10:10 PM. Arthur Fery came from a set down against Aleksandar Kovacevic. In Monterrey, wildcard Nikola Bartunková beat Ludmilla Vidmanová in three and second seed Elise Mertens beat Yuliia Starodubtseva 6-1 6-4. And in the final round of US Open qualifying, Grigor Dimitrov reached a Slam main draw by walkover — Otto Virtanen withdrew — while seven matches, including Géa v Basavareddy, were rained off and restarted this morning. Today is four semifinals: two on one court in Winston-Salem, two under lights in Monterrey.

Yesterday's brief, scored

Nine items. Seven were played to a finish, one was rained off before it started and one was a walkover. Of the seven, the favourite won four.

	Match	Vegas	Result
01	Cerúndolo v Buse	53 / 47	Buse 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2 underdog
02	Fery v Kovacevic	55 / 45	Fery 3-6 7-5 6-3 — from a set down favourite
03	Géa v Basavareddy	55 / 45	Rained off — carried to Friday, unplayed not played
04	Bonzi v vdZandschulp	40 / 60	Bonzi 7-6(5) 6-4 — a first semifinal of the season underdog
05	Marozsán v Duckworth	60 / 40	Duckworth 6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 — started 10:10 PM underdog
06	Vidmanová v Bartunková	37 / 63	Bartunková 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3 favourite
07	Starodubtseva v Mertens	35 / 65	Mertens 6-1 6-4 favourite
08	Wong v Lajović	65 / 35	Wong 6-4 6-3 favourite
09	Dimitrov v Virtanen	75 / 25	Dimitrov by walkover — Virtanen withdrew, into the main draw walkover

Dimitrov is in the main draw without hitting a ball. Otto Virtanen withdrew from the final qualifying round, and Grigor Dimitrov — a former world No. 3, seeded in the qualifying at 33 — goes through to a Slam main draw by walkover. The card gave him 75%; the number never got a test. Item 03 is the other unresolved one: seven qualifying matches were suspended by rain and Géa v Basavareddy was among them, restarting on Friday morning. It is left unscored rather than guessed at.

Three underdogs won and all three are in today's semifinals. Buse came from a set down against the eighth seed, Bonzi took out the man who had conceded one game the night before, and Duckworth beat Marozsán in a match that started at ten past ten at night and finished after midnight — which is the single most important fact on today's card, and the reason his workload row reads the way it does.

Wednesday's outstanding item has landed. Clara Tauson beat Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3 in two hours twenty-eight — the match that started after ten in Monterrey and had not resolved anywhere by press time. The market had Tauson marginally ahead at 52%; Elo had flipped it and made Alexandrova a 58% pick. The market was closer, so that day finishes two from eight rather than two from seven.

A correction. Yesterday's brief said Jack Draper "is in the same draw" as the qualifiers coming through. He is not. Draper withdrew from the US Open entirely on 26 August, the day before that sentence was published, with a bone bruise in his left arm. The line was wrong when it went out and should not have been written.

Nine days. Selected matches that were played to a finish have gone to the favourite 32 times in 69 — still under half across the whole run.

Elo v Vegas

Elo was closer on 2 of four yesterday, on the four cards that carried both lines. Across seven days it stands at 18 of 38.

Match	Vegas	Elo	Won
Cerúndolo v Buse	52.6	62.5	Buse	Vegas closer
Fery v Kovacevic	54.8	67.8	Fery	Elo closer
Bonzi v vdZandschulp	39.7	40.3	Bonzi	Elo closer
Marozsán v Duckworth	60.5	65.6	Duckworth	Vegas closer

A second correction, to this table. Yesterday's edition put the running total at "17 of 33". Adding up the days actually gives 16 of 33 — the error was arithmetic, in the cumulative line only, and the per-day figures published each morning were right. With Wednesday's late result now in, the run through Thursday was 16 of 34, and today's four take it to 18 of 38.

The two clear model wins were Fery and Duckworth, and they have something in common: both were underdogs in the market whom Elo rated well above their ranking, and both won. The two model losses were the reverse. Over thirty-eight matches this has not separated from a coin, which is the finding rather than a failure of it — a ratings file rebuilt weekly and a market repriced by the minute are looking at the same players with opposite blind spots.

Two of today's four carry no model line, and for the second day running the reason is the source rather than the players. Tennis Abstract's ratings pages have been unreachable across four attempts over two days, so the four Monterrey women have no current rating available. They are in the table; the table cannot be read. The fortnight-old figures are not substituted — that was the error caught here on Monday — so both WTA cards run on the market alone and say so on the line itself.