Vol. I · No. 10Tuesday, 25 August 2026Winston-Salem · Second round
Nine second-round matches at Winston-Salem, chosen by hand rather than by a price filter for the first time. Tennis Abstract rebuilt its Elo file overnight after fourteen days frozen, so today's model lines are the first fresh ones this brief has printed.
Conditions
Winston-Salem OpenWinston-Salem, NC
Sunny, high 84°F (29°C). Wind calm. Mostly clear overnight, low 62°F (17°C), wind staying calm. No precipitation in the forecast for either session.
Near-perfect conditions and no reason for anything to be delayed, which matters on a day with fourteen main-draw matches across four courts. Calm air is slow air: it rewards the better mover and takes something off the biggest servers. The National Weather Service revised the high down from 86°F this afternoon.
Where the tournament stands
Monday belonged to the men who had to play their way in. Mees Rottgering, a nineteen-year-old Wake Forest undergraduate who qualified on his own university's courts without dropping a set, beat Jan Choinski 7-5 2-6 6-4. Dhakshineswar Suresh, a Wake Forest alumnus in the draw only as a lucky loser and carrying four hours of qualifying, beat Marcos Giron 6-3 7-5 in 67 minutes — the fastest match of the day. Lucky losers went 3-0 on the day. Cruz Hewitt, seventeen, lost the first set 1-6 and survived a second-set tiebreak to beat Sebastian Gorzny 1-6 7-6(3) 6-4 in 2h11; he plays again today. Stefanos Tsitsipas came through 6-4 7-6(6) against Jenson Brooksby, saving set points at 8-6 in the breaker. Today is the rest of the second round — fourteen main-draw matches across four courts, with the top sixteen seeds all playing their opening match. US Open qualifying continues in New York and remains outside this brief.
Yesterday's brief, scored
Six items, all played. The favourite won two of six — the market's worst day since this began.
Match
Vegas
Result
01
Gorzny v Hewitt
50 / 50
Hewitt 1-6 7-6(3) 6-4 — 2h11, from a set and a breaker down underdog
02
Altmaier v Comesaña
49 / 51
Altmaier 6-1 7-6(6) — saved set points at 8-6 underdog
03
Choinski v Rottgering
58 / 42
Rottgering 7-5 2-6 6-4 — the Wake Forest qualifier underdog
04
Brooksby v Tsitsipas
41 / 59
Tsitsipas 6-4 7-6(6) — Brooksby held set points favourite
05
Balshaw v Kovacevic
36 / 64
Kovacevic 6-4 7-6(4), in 78 minutes favourite
06
Suresh v Giron
31 / 69
Suresh 6-3 7-5 — 67 minutes, the day's fastest underdog
Both Wake Forest men won, on their own campus courts. Mees Rottgering, the nineteen-year-old undergraduate qualifier, beat Jan Choinski 7-5 2-6 6-4 — and the hard-court Elo gap flagged here yesterday, Choinski 87th overall but 141st on hard, was the argument for exactly that result. Dhakshineswar Suresh, the alumnus, beat Marcos Giron 6-3 7-5 in 67 minutes with 4h07 of qualifying in his legs, the fastest match of the day and the biggest upset.
Cruz Hewitt survived the closest price the brief has printed. Down 1-6 and then into a second-set tiebreak, the seventeen-year-old came through 1-6 7-6(3) 6-4 in 2h11. He plays again today, item 09.
Six days. Selected matches have gone to the favourite 21 times in 44 — still just under half.
Elo v Vegas — and the file finally rebuilt
Elo was closer on 3 of three yesterday, on the three cards that carried a model line. Across four days it stands at 12 of 18.
Match
Vegas
Elo
Won
Altmaier v Comesaña
49.5
54.0
Altmaier
Elo closer
Brooksby v Tsitsipas
41.3
34.9
Tsitsipas
Elo closer
Suresh v Giron
30.5
34.5
Suresh
Elo closer
Tennis Abstract rebuilt its ratings overnight. The file had been frozen at 10 August for fourteen days, and every rating printed in this brief since Elo was introduced came off that build. It is now dated 24 August 2026 and includes Cincinnati for the first time. Today's numbers are the first fresh ones the page has carried.
The movement is worth seeing. Sara Bejlek, whose entire Cincinnati run was invisible to the old file, jumped forty places to 24th and gained 112 points of hard-court rating — the single largest change. Arthur Fils rose to fifth on hard after the title. And Adolfo Vallejo, whose 166th-on-hard rating drives item 04 today, was 228th on the old build: the surface gap this brief made a story of two days ago has narrowed by a third simply because the file caught up.
Which points at the honest limitation of the whole comparison. For two weeks the model was being scored against a market that knew about matches the model had never seen. That was disclosed on every card, but it means the running tally of 12 in 18 covers a period when the two lines were not competing on equal terms. From today they are.
The nine · closest first
01ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 4 · Hard (outdoor)~4:00 PM ET
Raphaël Collignon
🇧🇪 BEL · Rank 38 · Age 24 · Right-handed · seed 5
VS
Rinky Hijikata
🇦🇺 AUS · Rank 95 · Age 25 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Collignon 52%Hijikata 48%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 1.83 / 1.99. The tightest market on the card and the best-agreed: the two books price it within four cents of each other on both men.
Elo model · 24 AugCollignon 63.2% · Hijikata 36.8%11.2 pt gap
Head-to-head
First career meeting
They have never played.
Form & workload
Collignon last 5Not reliably sourced.
Hijikata last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Collignon
Hijikata
2026 season (W-L)
29-15
—
Past month (W-L)
0-2
2-3
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1845 33rd
1737 87th
Hard court
1786 34th
1691 85th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
258-122
302-200
Hard
46-33
224-124
Clay
136-49
30-37
Grass
5-3
30-23
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
0 (0)
1 (2)
Last 30 days
2 (4)
6 (14)
Last played
Aug 14
Aug 23
A rested man against a busy one, and the rest may be the problem. Collignon has played twice in a month and not at all in eleven days; he is 0-4 since reaching the Gstaad final in July, which is where his career-high No. 37 came from. Hijikata has six matches in the window and beat Monfils and Darderi in Cincinnati. Read the surface rows too: Hijikata is 224-124 on outdoor hard against Collignon's 46-33, and Collignon's real record is 136-49 on clay.
Health & notes
⚠Collignon — no injury, but no wins either. Nothing physical could be sourced. The flag is form and inactivity: four straight defeats since the Gstaad final on 20 July, and eleven days without a match going into a hard-court second round. He just missed a US Open seeding.
Hijikata: no injury concerns found. He got into this draw as an alternate, then beat Monfils and Darderi in Cincinnati last week before losing to Menšík, and came through Sunday's first round against Blanch in two.
AssessmentThe closest price of the day, and the model disagrees with it by eleven points — Elo makes Collignon a 63% favourite where the market says 52%. The gap is almost entirely surface: Elo has Collignon 34th in the world on hard court, which sits oddly against a career record of 46-33 on it and 136-49 on clay. Hijikata is the hard-court specialist here by a distance, and he is the one who has been winning.
02ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Stadium Court · Hard (outdoor)2:00 PM ET · under way at press time
Mattia Bellucci
🇮🇹 ITA · Rank 81 · Age 25 · Left-handed
VS
Luciano Darderi
🇮🇹 ITA · Rank 22 · Age 24 · Right-handed · seed 2
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Bellucci 46%Darderi 54%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 2.09 / 1.75. The books genuinely disagree here: BetMGM and Caesars price Bellucci as a coin-flip at 1.95–1.98, FanDuel and bet365 at 2.08–2.10. That is a five-point swing on the same player.
Elo model · 24 AugBellucci 46.3% · Darderi 53.7%0.7 pt gap
Head-to-head
Darderi leads 2-1
Darderi 6-4, 6-2 — 2026 Marrakech R16 Clay
Bellucci 6-4, 6-1 — 2023 Australian Open Q3 Hard
Darderi 6-1, 6-2 — 2019 Santa Margherita M25 Q1 Clay
An all-Italian meeting for the fourth time. Darderi's two wins are both on clay; Bellucci's is the only one they have played on hard, in Australian Open qualifying three years ago.
Form & workload
Bellucci last 5Not reliably sourced.
Darderi last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Bellucci
Darderi
2026 season (W-L)
20-21
30-20
Past month (W-L)
2-2
3-3
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1716 98th
1826 36th
Hard court
1673 94th
1699 82nd
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
288-186
234-153
Hard
155-84
30-30
Clay
63-50
197-104
Grass
21-16
6-10
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (3)
0 (0)
Last 30 days
4 (10)
6 (14)
Last played
Aug 23
Aug 15
Darderi is the second seed and ranked 59 places higher, and the surface row is the reason to hesitate: he is 30-30 lifetime on outdoor hard against 197-104 on clay, while Bellucci is 155-84 on hard. Elo says the same thing more sharply — Darderi is 36th overall but only 82nd on hard court. Bellucci had a bye-free route and spent 2h31 beating Landaluce on Sunday; Darderi has not played in ten days.
Health & notes
Bellucci: no injury concerns found. The only left-hander in the top half of this card. He took Menšík to three in Cincinnati.
⚠Darderi — a retirement in the window that could not be pinned. His Los Cabos match on 30 July ends '3-0 ret.' in the record and is described elsewhere as an early exit, but no source establishes which player retired. His Montreal second round on 5 August was also a retirement — that one was Diallo, and Darderi advanced. He reached the Montreal quarterfinals, his best hard-court run.
AssessmentThe market and the model agree almost exactly here — seven-tenths of a point apart, both making the second seed a modest favourite — and both are quietly saying the ranking overstates him. Darderi is a clay player having his best hard-court month; 30-30 lifetime on this surface is the baseline and Montreal was the outlier. Bellucci is left-handed, has the better hard-court record, and owns the only meeting they have played on it.
03ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 3 · Hard (outdoor)Not before 3:30 PM ET
Luca Van Assche
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank 40 · Age 22 · Right-handed · seed 11
VS
Aleksandar Kovacevic
🇺🇸 USA · Rank 96 · Age 27 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Van Assche 58%Kovacevic 42%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 1.64 / 2.27. No material disagreement across six books.
Elo model · 24 AugVan Assche 69.1% · Kovacevic 30.9%11.1 pt gap
Head-to-head
First career meeting
They have never played. Kovacevic did beat Altmaier at Eastbourne in June, if you want a reference point inside this week's field.
Form & workload
Van Assche last 5Not reliably sourced.
Kovacevic last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Van Assche
Kovacevic
2026 season (W-L)
—
15-23
Past month (W-L)
5-0
2-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1790 58th
1628 155th
Hard court
1744 51st
1604 139th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
202-155
243-219
Hard
28-31
139-110
Clay
92-62
37-47
Grass
7-6
6-18
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
4 (10)
1 (2)
Last 30 days
5 (13)
5 (13)
Last played
Aug 23
Aug 24
Identical thirty-day loads — five matches, thirteen sets each — arrived at completely differently. Van Assche won the Quebec City Challenger on Saturday, four matches and ten sets in the last week including a three-set quarterfinal against Bonzi, who is also on today's card. The title took him into the top 40 for the first time. His seeding of 11 predates those points, which is why a man ranked 40 is seeded below one ranked 48.
Health & notes
Van Assche: no injury concerns found. Two titles inside the window — Estoril on 26 July and Quebec City on Saturday, his fifth of 2026. He has won five straight.
Kovacevic: no injury concerns found. The season record is poor but it contains a win over Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati ten days ago, and he came through Monday's first round in 78 minutes. He is ranked 96 and defending points here.
AssessmentElo likes the Frenchman eleven points more than the market does, at 69% against 58% — and for once the model is arguably the better informed of the two, because the rebuilt ratings file now includes the Quebec City title that the seedings do not. Against that, Van Assche has played four matches in six days and travelled, while Kovacevic needed 78 minutes on Monday. Fresh legs against form is the whole match.
04ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 3 · Hard (outdoor)2:00 PM ET · under way at press time
Botic van de Zandschulp
🇳🇱 NED · Rank 71 · Age 30 · Right-handed · seed 13
VS
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
🇵🇾 PAR · Rank 61 · Age 22 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
van de Zandschulp 58%Vallejo 42%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 1.63 / 2.29, and the two disagree more than usual: DraftKings has van de Zandschulp at 1.68, bet365's international book at 1.57, a four-point swing. The two bet365 jurisdictions also disagree with each other.
Elo model · 24 Augvan de Zandschulp 73.6% · Vallejo 26.4%15.1 pt gap
Head-to-head
Vallejo leads 1-0
Vallejo 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4) — 2026 Båstad R32 Clay
One meeting, six weeks ago on clay, and the younger man won it from a set down. Worth noting because one widely-used database has this result the wrong way round.
Form & workload
van de Zandschulp last 5Not reliably sourced.
Vallejo last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
van de Zandschulp
Vallejo
2026 season (W-L)
19-18
41-18
Past month (W-L)
3-3
3-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1762 78th
1719 96th
Hard court
1739 55th
1561 166th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
428-261
199-124
Hard
74-54
35-26
Clay
206-123
142-89
Grass
12-15
0-2
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
0 (0)
1 (1)
Last 30 days
6 (16)
5 (11)
Last played
Aug 16
Aug 23
Vallejo is ranked ten places higher than the seed he is playing, and beat him last month. He also got the cheapest win of the week on Sunday — Carreño Busta retired after one set, so it cost him a single set of tennis. The Elo row is where the doubt sits: Vallejo is 96th overall but 166th on hard court, the widest split on the page, and this is a hard court. On the rebuilt file that gap has narrowed sharply from where it stood two weeks ago.
Health & notes
van de Zandschulp: no 2026 injury concerns found. In Montreal three weeks ago he beat Medvedev and Hurkacz back to back. He was runner-up at this tournament last year and is still chasing a first tour title.
Vallejo: no injury concerns found. In March he became the third Paraguayan to reach the top 100; he has since beaten Vacherot in Cincinnati and taken a set off Tommy Paul.
AssessmentThe largest disagreement on the card — fifteen points — and it is a surface argument. Elo gives van de Zandschulp 74% because Vallejo's hard-court rating sits at 166 against an overall 96; the market says 58% because it watched Vallejo beat this same opponent six weeks ago and reach the Cincinnati third round. Note also that the Dutchman's own printed career split, 206-123 on clay against 74-54 on hard, reads implausibly for a player of his profile and should be treated with suspicion.
05ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 2 · Hard (outdoor)~8:00 PM ET · night
Adrian Mannarino
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank 67 · Age 38 · Left-handed · seed 9
VS
Lorenzo Sonego
🇮🇹 ITA · Rank 91 · Age 31 · Right-handed
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Mannarino 41%Sonego 59%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 2.33 / 1.61. The best-agreed market of the nine: bet365's price is identical across both aggregators checked.
Elo model · 24 AugMannarino 41.6% · Sonego 58.4%0.7 pt gap
Head-to-head
Mannarino leads 3-2
Mannarino 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 — 2024 Beijing R32 Hard
Mannarino 6-4, 6-4 — 2024 United Cup RR Hard
Mannarino 6-1, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 — 2020 US Open R128 Hard
Sonego 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 — 2019 Antalya QF Grass
Sonego 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 — 2018 Rome R64 Clay
Five meetings, and they divide perfectly by surface: Mannarino is 3-0 on hard, Sonego 2-0 off it. Today is on hard. The United Cup meeting is a team event — it counts here but would be excluded from the workload figures.
Form & workload
Mannarino last 5Not reliably sourced.
Sonego last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Mannarino
Sonego
2026 season (W-L)
12-19
—
Past month (W-L)
1-3
2-1
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1672 129th
1731 91st
Hard court
1644 116th
1703 80th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
748-619
429-321
Hard
304-234
85-92
Clay
82-135
230-143
Grass
108-70
28-24
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
0 (0)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
4 (8)
3 (8)
Last played
Aug 13
Aug 24
At 38 Mannarino is the oldest man in the draw and has the lightest set load on the page — four matches in a month, every one of them in straight sets, and none since 13 August. Sonego has played three but spent 2h39 on Monday beating Herbert from a set down, the longest match of that day. The career split favours Mannarino here: 304-234 on outdoor hard against Sonego's 85-92, and Sonego's real record is 230-143 on clay.
Health & notes
Mannarino: no current injury could be sourced, though no dedicated injury source was reachable, so read that as not-found rather than a clean bill. He beat 16th seed Learner Tien in Washington on 28 July, then lost his next three.
Sonego: no current injury could be sourced, same caveat. He has a gap in his record between mid-July and Cincinnati. Monday's 2h39 was hard work against a lucky loser.
AssessmentMarket and model agree to within a point, both making Sonego a clear favourite — and the head-to-head says the opposite. Mannarino has won all three of their hard-court meetings and lost both played elsewhere; today is on hard. He is also the fresher man by some way, four straight-sets matches in a month against a Sonego who spent nearly three hours on court on Monday. The counter is simply that Mannarino is 38 and has lost three of his last four.
06ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 3 · Hard (outdoor)~6:00 PM ET
James Duckworth
🇦🇺 AUS · Rank 77 · Age 34 · Right-handed
VS
Mariano Navone
🇦🇷 ARG · Rank 48 · Age 25 · Right-handed · seed 6
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Duckworth 40%Navone 60%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 2.37 / 1.59. Well agreed; FanDuel is a little short on Navone at 1.64.
Elo model · 24 AugDuckworth 33.0% · Navone 67.0%7.0 pt gap
Head-to-head
First career meeting
They have never played.
Form & workload
Duckworth last 5Not reliably sourced.
Navone last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Duckworth
Navone
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
5-2
3-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1647 148th
1821 40th
Hard court
1607 136th
1730 68th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
544-354
278-176
Hard
330-206
17-28
Clay
110-64
257-137
Grass
51-45
2-6
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
1 (2)
0 (0)
Last 30 days
7 (17)
5 (14)
Last played
Aug 24
Aug 15
The clearest surface mismatch on the card. Navone is 257-137 on clay and 17-28 on outdoor hard; Duckworth is 330-206 on hard. Elo captures it — Navone is 40th overall but 68th on hard — though not as starkly as the raw records do. Duckworth is also the busier man: seven matches in the window, including wins over Norrie and de Minaur, and a 71-minute first round on Monday. Navone has not played in ten days.
Health & notes
Duckworth: no current injury could be sourced. At 34 he is the oldest man on the page after Mannarino, and he beat both Norrie and de Minaur inside this window.
Navone: no current injury could be sourced. He beat Berrettini and Vacherot in Montreal, and Collignon — who plays item 01 today — in the Cincinnati first round.
AssessmentA seeded clay-courter on a hard court against a 34-year-old who has spent his career on it. The market has Navone at 60% and Elo at 67%, both leaning on the ranking; the career table leans hard the other way, 330-206 against 17-28. Duckworth has beaten Norrie and de Minaur this month. If the seed goes out today, the reason will have been legible in advance.
07ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 2 · Hard (outdoor)2:00 PM ET · under way at press time
Adam Walton
🇦🇺 AUS · Rank 98 · Age 27 · Right-handed
VS
Ignacio Buse
🇵🇪 PER · Rank 34 · Age 22 · Right-handed · seed 3
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Walton 61%Buse 39%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 1.57 / 2.41. Note the unseeded man is the favourite over the third seed.
Elo model · 24 AugWalton 57.3% · Buse 42.7%3.2 pt gap
Head-to-head
Walton leads 1-0
Walton 6-4, 6-3 — 2026 Cincinnati R64 Hard
They played eight days ago, on this surface, and Walton won in straight sets. That is as clean a reference point as this brief ever gets.
Form & workload
Walton last 5Not reliably sourced.
Buse last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Walton
Buse
2026 season (W-L)
30-23
19-17
Past month (W-L)
5-3
0-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1719 97th
1767 73rd
Hard court
1670 97th
1619 130th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
256-155
184-114
Hard
230-117
24-17
Clay
6-9
142-86
Grass
12-14
3-4
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
2 (5)
0 (0)
Last 30 days
7 (17)
2 (4)
Last played
Aug 24
Aug 17
The third seed is the underdog and the market is right to make him one. Buse is 142-86 on clay against 24-17 on outdoor hard, has won nothing in a month, and lost to this same opponent on this same surface eight days ago. Elo has him 73rd overall but 130th on hard. Walton has seven matches in the window and reached the Cincinnati third round. His thirty-day figure is a floor — one possible Montreal qualifying match could not be confirmed.
Health & notes
Walton: no injury concerns found. He is 230-117 on outdoor hard, one of the two purest hard-court records in the field, and beat de Jong in straight sets on Monday.
Buse: no injury concerns found. He is 22, reached the Hamburg final this year and a career high around No. 31, and is about to play his first US Open main draw. His thirty-day count could not be pinned exactly — whether he had byes at Montreal and Cincinnati is unresolved, so two matches is a floor.
AssessmentEverything points one way and the price still isn't long. Walton beat Buse eight days ago on this surface, is 230-117 on it lifetime against 24-17, has played seven matches in the window to Buse's two, and is 5-3 in the month against 0-2. The only argument for the seed is the ranking, and the ranking is built on clay.
08ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Court 4 · Hard (outdoor)2:00 PM ET · under way at press time
Benjamin Bonzi
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank 100 · Age 30 · Right-handed
VS
Quentin Halys
🇫🇷 FRA · Rank 52 · Age 29 · Right-handed · seed 12
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Bonzi 39%Halys 61%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 2.43 / 1.56. FanDuel is an outlier long on Bonzi at 2.52.
Elo model · 24 AugBonzi 41.3% · Halys 58.7%2.1 pt gap
Head-to-head
Halys leads 5-2
Halys 6-3, 6-4 — 2026 Adelaide Q1 Hard
Halys 6-4, 6-4 — 2025 Halle R32 Grass
Bonzi 6-7, 7-6, ? — 2024 Metz QF Indoor hard
Seven meetings between two Frenchmen and Halys has won five, including the last two in straight sets. Only three could be individually sourced; the other four are likely French Challengers and are attested but not itemised. The Metz deciding set could not be found.
Form & workload
Bonzi last 5Not reliably sourced.
Halys last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Bonzi
Halys
2026 season (W-L)
29-22
24-18
Past month (W-L)
5-5
2-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1708 104th
1793 54th
Hard court
1671 96th
1732 65th
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
517-333
464-363
Hard
198-112
—
Clay
140-104
—
Grass
33-20
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
4 (8)
0 (0)
Last 30 days
10 (22)
4 (9)
Last played
Aug 24
Aug 16
Bonzi has the heaviest load in the field by a wide margin — ten matches in thirty days across four cities, including a Challenger quarterfinal in Quebec City on Thursday and a first round here on Monday, with travel in between. Halys has a bye and has not played in nine days. Set counts for both carry small unresolved gaps and should be read as approximate.
Health & notes
⚠Bonzi — ten matches in thirty days, four in the last seven. No injury, but the schedule is the story: Vancouver and Quebec City Challengers slotted around Montreal and Cincinnati, a quarterfinal on 21 August, then Winston-Salem on the 24th. He beat Majchrzak in the first round.
Halys: no injury concerns found. He won his maiden ATP title at Kitzbühel in July at 29, beating Bublik in the final — the best stretch of his career. It falls one day outside the thirty-day window.
AssessmentAn all-French second round in which the seed has the head-to-head, the ranking and eight days of rest, and the market has priced all three. The case for Bonzi is that he is the only one of the two who has hit a ball this week and has won five matches in the month — but he has also played ten, and the last four came in seven days across two countries.
09ATP R2Winston-Salem Open · Stadium Court · Hard (outdoor)Not before 4:00 PM ET
Arthur Fery
🇬🇧 GBR · Rank 37 · Age 24 · Right-handed · seed 4
VS
Cruz Hewitt
🇦🇺 AUS · Rank 376 · Age 17 · Right-handed · wildcard
Vegas — implied by betting odds, margin removed
Fery 80%Hewitt 20%
Median of DraftKings and bet365 — 1.20 / 4.72, and the softest market of the nine: Hewitt ranges from 4.40 to 5.10 across six books. This match would have been excluded under the odds filter retired yesterday, which cut anything priced beyond 4.00. It is here because it was chosen, and it is flagged as the formality the market thinks it is.
Elo model · 24 AugNo prediction — Hewitt is unratedno comparison
Head-to-head
First career meeting
They have never played. Fery is 24 and a Wimbledon semifinalist; Hewitt is 17 and playing his fourth tour-level main draw.
Form & workload
Fery last 5Not reliably sourced.
Hewitt last 5Not reliably sourced.
Window
Fery
Hewitt
2026 season (W-L)
—
—
Past month (W-L)
1-1
4-2
Elo rating — Tennis Abstract, 24 Aug
Overall
1811 41st
—
Hard court
1734 61st
—
Career — all-time W-L
Overall
181-83
28-32
Hard
60-27
28-32
Clay
8-6
—
Grass
15-21
—
Workload — matches played (sets)
Last 7 days
0 (0)
1 (3)
Last 30 days
2 (6)
7 (18)
Last played
Aug 18
Aug 24
Fery has played twice in a month — both in Cincinnati, both going the distance — and nothing at all between Wimbledon and mid-August. Hewitt has played seven, including two Washington qualifying rounds that ended in retirements and a 2h11 comeback on Monday. Hewitt is unrated by Tennis Abstract, so there is no model line here. The career table understates him too: it files all 60 of his matches as hard court and shows dashes for clay and grass, which cannot be right for a Wimbledon boys' finalist.
Health & notes
Fery: no injury concerns found. He reached the <b>Wimbledon semifinal</b> this year, beating Dimitrov in the fourth round and ninth seed Cobolli in the quarters before losing to Zverev — which is where the ranking of 37 and the fourth seeding come from. Both his Cincinnati matches went to three sets and he won one of them.
Hewitt: no injury concerns found. Lleyton's son, 17, in on a wildcard. On Monday he lost the first set 1-6 to Sebastian Gorzny, survived a second-set tiebreak and won 6-4 in the third, 2h11 on Stadium Court. In July he was runner-up in the Wimbledon boys' singles; in Washington he qualified and beat Marcos Giron for a first ATP main-draw win.
AssessmentThe one match on the card the market considers over before it starts, and it is here because it is the best story of the day rather than the closest call. A 17-year-old wildcard who came from a set down on Monday against a 24-year-old who reached the Wimbledon semifinals eight weeks ago. Fery has played twice since Wimbledon; Hewitt has played seven times in a month and won four of them. There is no model line because Hewitt is below the rating threshold — the market's 80-20 is the only opinion available.
Also on the schedule
Nothing was excluded, because nothing was filtered. These nine were chosen by hand from the fourteen main-draw matches on today's order of play — the first edition selected that way. Five further second-round matches are being played and are not covered here.